Assessing hurricane effects. Part 2. Uncertainty analysis

Abstract The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) performs an annual review of computer models that have been submitted by vendors for use in insurance rate filings in Florida. As part of the review process and to comply with the Sunshine Law, the FCHLPM employs a Professional Team to perform on-site (confidential) audits of these models. Members of the Professional Team represent the fields of actuarial science, computer science, meteorology, statistics and wind and structural engineering. The audit includes an assessment of modeler's compliance to a set of standards and modules established by the FCHLPM. One part of these standards requires uncertainty and sensitivity analyses (UA/SA) to be conducted on the proprietary model. At the completion of the audit, the professional team provides a written report to the FCHLPM, who ultimately judges compliance by a vendor to the standards. To influence future such analyses, the Professional Team conducted a demonstration UA/SA for the FCHLPM using a Rankine-vortex hurricane wind field model and surrogate damage function. This is the second of a two-part article presenting the results of those analyses. Part 1 presented sensitivity analysis results for wind speed and loss cost while the current paper presents the corresponding uncertainty analysis results.

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