A model of market entry in an emerging technology market

The timing of market entry is a critical decision, involving the need to balance the risk of premature entry with the problems of missed opportunities as a result of late entry. Drawing from several theoretical perspectives, we propose a model for explaining the reasons for early or delayed entry into an emerging technology market. A novel feature of our study is the use of a hazard modeling framework to analyze longitudinal data pertaining to over 3500 entrants and nonentrants during the emergence of the automated teller machine market. This approach alleviates the sample selection problems associated with prior entry research. With caution in generalizing the results to other settings, we find compelling evidence in support of the model, extending our knowledge of the dynamics surrounding entry into certain technology markets.

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