Identification by quantitative chromatin pattern analysis of patients at risk for recurrence of superficial transitional bladder carcinoma.

PURPOSE Based on the actual clinical outcomes of 132 fully documented patients with superficial transitional cell carcinoma of the bladder, we characterize the risk of recurrence and/or progression by computer assisted image microscopy applied to Feulgen stained nuclei. MATERIALS AND METHODS Each tumor was characterized by the conventional grading and staging systems as well as by cytometry generated variables describing nuclear DNA content, nuclear morphometry and chromatin patterns. These data were submitted to discriminant analysis to establish a model distinguishing between 2 groups of patients. Group 1 included cases with remission for more than 60 months and group 2 cases presented with recurrence with or without progression within 12 months of transurethral bladder resection. This latter model was then validated by Kaplan-Meyer analysis of the full data set. RESULTS As evidenced by Kaplan-Meier analysis, the discriminant factor generated by discriminant analysis of cytometry generated variables provided a cutoff value for distinguishing between low and high risks of recurrence (p <0.00001). In contrast, conventional grading and staging systems were not able to make such efficient distinction. CONCLUSIONS These 2 groups can be used as references with which new cases can be compared to prognosticate disease behavior independently of histopathological grading and/or clinical staging.