Fuzzy Logic Model for Natural Risk Assessment in SW Bulgaria

Assessing the natural risk is a major issue for the responsible risk management and the sustainable regional development of SouthWestern Bulgaria. The paper presents a fuzzy logic model for complex estimation of the natural risk in the SW Bulgaria region, based on the available information sources and the expert knowledge. The risk assessment problem is defined as a multicriterial task that evaluates several input variables (indicators for natural hazards). A hierarchical fuzzy logic system with four inputs and one output is designed in the Matlab software environment using Fuzzy Logic Toolbox and Simulink. The simulation investigations are done for five geographic areas in SW Bulgaria. The areas are ordered by the decreasing degree of complex natural risk. This fuzzy system is part of the Web Integrated Information System for risk management of natural disasters which will be developed.