The effects of bias, drift, and trends in calculating anomalies for evaluating skill of seasonal-to-decadal initialized climate predictions

[1]  G. Meehl,et al.  Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Characteristics, causes, predictability, and prospects , 2021, Science.

[2]  Adam A. Scaife,et al.  Initialized Earth System prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales , 2021, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment.

[3]  Henning W. Rust,et al.  Recalibrating Decadal Climate Predictions – What is an adequate model for the drift? , 2020, Geoscientific Model Development.

[4]  W. Weijer,et al.  Enhancing Skill of Initialized Decadal Predictions Using a Dynamic Model of Drift , 2019, Geophysical Research Letters.

[5]  Adam A. Scaife,et al.  Robust skill of decadal climate predictions , 2019, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science.

[6]  W. G. Strand,et al.  Predicting Near-Term Changes in the Earth System: A Large Ensemble of Initialized Decadal Prediction Simulations Using the Community Earth System Model , 2018, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

[7]  E. Hawkins,et al.  Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability: Challenges and Opportunities , 2017 .

[8]  M. Liniger,et al.  Parametric decadal climate forecast recalibration (DeFoReSt 1.0) , 2017 .

[9]  W. Müller,et al.  Probabilistic evaluation of decadal prediction skill regarding Northern Hemisphere winter storms , 2016 .

[10]  Michel Rixen,et al.  The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6 , 2016 .

[11]  David B. Stephenson,et al.  Best Practices for Postprocessing Ensemble Climate Forecasts. Part I: Selecting Appropriate Recalibration Methods , 2016 .

[12]  G. Meehl,et al.  Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation , 2016, Nature Communications.

[13]  G. Meehl,et al.  Effects of the Mount Pinatubo eruption on decadal climate prediction skill of Pacific sea surface temperatures , 2015 .

[14]  K.,et al.  The Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble project: a community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate variability , 2015 .

[15]  M. England,et al.  Effects of volcanism on tropical variability , 2015 .

[16]  B. Santer,et al.  Observed multivariable signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity , 2015 .

[17]  G. Meehl,et al.  Climate model simulations of the observed early-2000s hiatus of global warming , 2014 .

[18]  Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes,et al.  A posteriori adjustment of near‐term climate predictions: Accounting for the drift dependence on the initial conditions , 2014 .

[19]  G. Meehl,et al.  Decadal climate prediction: an update from the trenches , 2014 .

[20]  M. Kimoto,et al.  Initialized near-term regional climate change prediction , 2013, Nature Communications.

[21]  Mark A. Liniger,et al.  Methodological aspects of the validation of decadal predictions , 2013 .

[22]  John F. Scinocca,et al.  Statistical adjustment of decadal predictions in a changing climate , 2012 .

[23]  G. Meehl,et al.  Decadal Variability of Asian–Australian Monsoon–ENSO–TBO Relationships , 2011 .

[24]  G. Meehl,et al.  Decadal prediction: Can it be skillful? , 2009 .

[25]  Elizabeth C. Kent,et al.  Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century , 2003 .

[26]  Thomas E. Fricker,et al.  A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments , 2012, Climate Dynamics.