Uncertain non-linear dynamical system submitted to uncertain stochastic loads

The problem concerns the identification of a model of the external loads applied to tubes bundles through the knowledge of dynamical responses. The computational model is simplified implying a loss of accuracy and of predictability due to model uncertainties induced by the simplification introduced. A probabilistic model of model uncertainties is implemented in the mean computational model using the nonparametric probabilistic approach for system-parameter uncertainties and model uncertainties. In addition, a probabilistic model for the stochastic loads is constructed to take into account model uncertainties in the probabilistic model of the stochastic loads. The nonlinear stochastic dynamical system, submited to the uncertain stochastic loads, is used to identify the probability model of its uncertainties.