Comparing measures of homicide trends: Methodological and substantive differences in the Vital Statistics and Uniform Crime Report time series (1933–1975)

Abstract Several Uniform Crime Reports (FBI) and Vital Statistics (NCHS) homicide time series for the United States, 1933–1975, are compared with respect to (a) definitions and collection procedures used; (b) differences in estimating procedures; and (c) substantive differences that result from use of either series. Among the findings from this investigation are that: (1) the sampling procedures employed by the NCHS appear to be superior to those of the FBI; (2) the FBI time series most commonly employed by researchers is discontinuous prior to 1958 due to revision procedures which were instituted at that time. Analyses over time periods which began prior to this year should employ a more accurate FBI time series which is published by the Office of Management and Budget (1973). (3) The specific time period under study may lead to different substantive conclusions with different indicators; (4) the results of statistical analyses of structural equation models contained herein indicate that while the difference is not generally statistically significant, the deterrent effect of execution is consistently estimated to be greater with the Vital Statistics series. This finding has important policy implications if estimates of the number of lives saved by executing prisoners are projected and utilized by policy makers. (5) Neither series indicates serious problems of autocorrelation of disturbances with the exogenous variables employed here; and (6) use of either series for the period after 1949 appears to produce the same substantive results.