Spatial modelling of agrarian subsidy payments as an input for evaluating changes of ecosystem services

Abstract The only constant in landscapes is change. Among other influences, such as climate change, these changes are driven by political decisions affecting ecosystem services. The overall research objective is to define how the European Union's political strategies implemented through Rural Development Programmes and the Common Agricultural Policy might influence or change ecosystem goods and services in the future. This paper aims at outlining the research framework and especially focuses on spatially explicit modelling the distribution of subsidy cash flows on farm and parcel level. Experiments with changing political strategies and incentive payments were carried out in the Mondsee catchment (Austria) using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The results were visualised and show the dominant (inter-)national and regional funding programmes of this area. They further display the likely effects of changing political strategies on the monetary value of certain parcels and the overall farm–parcel balance. The validation of an aggregated set of funding measures reveals 15% deviation between the model framework and real subsidy payments. This approach is suitable for both (a) estimating the impact of changed funding strategies at EU level and (b) supporting farmers in identifying the best economic income sources on parcel and farm level. Embedded in the overall research objective the results constitute the basis for opening a discussion on how ecosystem services might change with political intervention strategies in rural areas and resulting landscape changes in the future.

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