Conformal Prediction of Disruptions from Scratch: Application to an ITER Scenario

This article shows a conformal prediction application to disruption prediction from scratch. Considering data from ILW experimental campaigns both hydrogen and deuterium campaigns, a one-layer disruption predictor has been tested from scratch. The results show a relevant improvement where the success rate rate of disruptions predicted correctly increases and the false alarm rate rate of non-disruptive discharges misclassified decreases, using conformal prediction CP rather than conventional methodology from scratch. CP from scratch achieves a success rate of $$100\,\%$$ with the first model and only one disruptive discharge.

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