Spatial and temporal variations in land development and impervious surface creation in Oakland County, Michigan, 1945–2005

Summary Impervious surface has been recognized as a key indicator of watershed health and function. The rapid expansion of impervious surface associated with periurban development following the Second World War resulted in concerns that impervious surface would alter flow characteristics, water quality, sediment, and stream morphology. These effects have been documented in studies across many disciplines. Unfortunately, impervious surface is difficult to measure directly, and other forms of land-use data are often substituted as surrogates. This paper highlights the shortcomings in land-use data, particularly parcel-based land-use data, as a surrogate for impervious surface in a periurban environment. Periurban development has changed substantially in the last several decades. This study investigates changes in the form of periurban development in Oakland County, Michigan, from 1945 to 2005, with an emphasis on the accumulation of impervious surface. We first evaluate patterns in the sizes of parcels being developed to residential uses. Using an impervious surface map derived from aerial imagery, we then calculate amount of impervious surface created by different forms of development, both in parcels of similar sizes developed at different times, and across parcel sizes for the period of the study. The results indicate substantial variability in impervious surface within periurban residential development, from 5.4% of parcel area to 25.4% of total parcel area depending on parcel size. Even within relatively specific categories (for example, residential parcels less than 743 square metre) impervious surface varied between 18.5% and 34.6% of the parcel area between 1945 and 2000. Since 1980, the trend has been toward larger parcel sizes with lower impervious surface ratios. The overall effect is that land is being developed at a rate substantially greater than the rate impervious surface is being created. The bias created by the trend to larger parcel sizes with smaller impervious surface ratios results in a tendency to overestimate the effects of recent land development. In combination with the change in character of suburban development, this bias has a tendency to overestimate the hydrologic response to new development. This overestimation is easily overlooked because it is consistent with the expected effect of urbanization. However, this effect helps explain observed field results indicating little change in streamflow through time despite significant apparent periurban development.