What-if analysis and the illusion of control

The research presented hypothesizes that what-if analysis creates an 'illusion of control' which causes people to overestimate its effectiveness. The study reported found that what-if analysis improved performance for about half of the subjects and degraded performance for the rest in a simulated production scheduling task. However, all subjects but one reported believing what-if to be beneficial to their decision performance. Erroneous beliefs persisted in the face of outcome feedback showing inferior performance when what-if analysis was used. In light of other research linking user acceptance to users' performance perceptions, these results indicate the potential for sustained but dysfunctional use of what-if analysis due to overconfidence.<<ETX>>

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