Conceptual structure of the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

The conceptual structure of the 1996 performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is described. This structure involves three basic entities (EN1, EN2, EN3): (1) EN1, a probabilistic characterization of the likelihood of different futures occurring at the WIPP site over the next 10,000 yr, (2) EN2, a procedure for estimating the radionuclide releases to the accessible environment associated with each of the possible futures that could occur at the WIPP site over the next 10,000 yr, and (3) EN3, a probabilistic characterization of the uncertainty in the parameters used in the definition of EN1 and EN2. In the formal development of the 1996 WIPP PA, EN1 is characterized by a probability space (S{sub st}, P{sub st}, p{sub st}) for stochastic (i.e., aleatory) uncertainly; EN2 is characterized by a function {line_integral} that corresponds to the models and associated computer programs used to estimate radionuclide releases; and EN3 is characterized by a probability space (S{sub su}, P{sub su}, p{sub su}) for subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty. A high-level overview of the 1996 WIPP PA and references to additional sources of information are given in the context of (S{sub st}, P{sub st}, p{sub st}), {line_integral} and (S{sub su}, P{sub su}, p{sub su}).

[1]  S. Kaplan,et al.  On The Quantitative Definition of Risk , 1981 .

[2]  G. Apostolakis.  The concept of probability in safety assessments of technological systems. , 1990, Science.

[3]  Jon C. Helton,et al.  Stochastic and Subjective Uncertainty in the Assessment of Radiation Exposure at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant , 1998 .

[4]  C. M. Stone.  Final disposal room structural response calculations , 1997 .

[5]  J C Helton,et al.  A Monte Carlo procedure for the construction of complementary cumulative distribution functions for comparison with the EPA release limits for radioactive waste disposal. , 1995, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[6]  Andrew A. Rosenberg,et al.  ES&T Series: Fisheries Risk Assessment Sources of Uncertainty: A Case Study of Georges Bank Haddock , 1992 .

[7]  Timothy M. Barry,et al.  Monte Carlo modeling with uncertain probability density functions , 1996 .

[8]  John D. Graham,et al.  Going beyond the single number: Using probabilistic risk assessment to improve risk management , 1996 .

[9]  D Hattis,et al.  Human interindividual variability--a major source of uncertainty in assessing risks for noncancer health effects. , 1994, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[10]  Jon C. Helton,et al.  Guest editorial: treatment of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in performance assessments for complex systems , 1996 .

[11]  Robert L. Winkler,et al.  Uncertainty in probabilistic risk assessment , 1996 .

[12]  Melvin G. Marietta,et al.  Regulatory basis for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant performance assessment , 2000, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[13]  Rob P. Rechard,et al.  Historical background on performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant , 1999, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[14]  D. M. Rasmuson,et al.  Uncertainties in Nuclear Probabilistic Risk Analyses , 1984 .

[15]  Jon C. Helton,et al.  Direct releases to the surface and associated complementary cumulative distribution functions in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: direct brine release , 2000, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[16]  T. McKone.  Uncertainty and variability in human exposures to soil contaminants through home-grown food: a Monte Carlo assessment. , 1994, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[17]  J C Helton,et al.  Performance Assessment in Support of the 1996 Compliance Certification Application for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant , 1999, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[18]  Jon C. Helton,et al.  Summary discussion of the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant , 2000, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[19]  G. Parry.  On the meaning of probability in probabilistic safety assessment , 1988 .

[20]  Stan Kaplan.  Formalisms for handling phenomenological uncertainties: the concepts of probability, frequency, variability, and probability of frequency , 1993 .

[21]  Jon C. Helton,et al.  Radionuclide and colloid transport in the Culebra Dolomite and associated complementary cumulative distribution functions in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant , 2000, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[22]  J. W. Garner,et al.  Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results obtained in a preliminary performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant , 1993 .

[23]  A. Lavenue,et al.  A modeling approach to address spatial variability within the Culebra Dolomite transmissivity field , 1992 .

[24]  T. McKone,et al.  PREDICTING THE UNCERTAINTIES IN RISK ASSESSMENT , 1991 .

[25]  Jon C. Helton,et al.  Representation of two-phase flow in the vicinity of the repository in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant , 2000, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[26]  Peter N. Swift,et al.  Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Compliance Certification Application , 2000, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[27]  Division on Earth.  Risk Assessment in the Federal Government: Managing the Process , 1983 .

[28]  E Anderson,et al.  Key issues in carcinogen risk assessment guidelines, Society for Risk Analysis. , 1993, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[29]  D. C. Cox,et al.  Limit lines for risk , 1982 .

[30]  Jon C. Helton,et al.  Conceptual basis of a systems prioritization methodology for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant , 1997 .

[31]  Shesh N. Rai,et al.  A general framework for the analysis of uncertainty and variability in risk assessment , 1996 .

[32]  F. T. Mendenhall,et al.  The second iteration of the Systems Prioritization Method: A systems prioritization and decision-aiding tool for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Volume 1, Synopsis of method and results , 1996 .

[33]  R. Spear,et al.  Integrating uncertainty and interindividual variability in environmental risk assessment. , 1987, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[34]  C. M. Stone,et al.  SANTOS - a two-dimensional finite element program for the quasistatic, large deformation, inelastic response of solids , 1997 .

[35]  H. Frey,et al.  Characterizing, simulating, and analyzing variability and uncertainty: An illustration of methods using an air toxics emissions example , 1996 .

[36]  Jon C. Helton,et al.  Calculation of reactor accident safety goals , 1993 .

[37]  Andrew A. Rosenberg,et al.  Fisheries risk assessment sources of uncertainty , 1992 .

[38]  Jon C. Helton,et al.  Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques for use in performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal , 1993 .

[39]  F. Farmer.  REACTOR SAFETY AND SITING: A PROPOSED RISK CRITERION. , 1967 .

[40]  J. C. Helton,et al.  Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in the presence of stochastic and subjective uncertainty , 1997 .

[41]  Jonathan S. Rath,et al.  Radioactive and nonradioactive waste intended for disposal at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant , 2000, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[42]  M. G. Marietta,et al.  Conceptual and Computational Structure of the 1996 Performance Assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant , 1997 .

[43]  G. Yadigaroglu,et al.  On Farmer's line, probability density functions, and overall risk , 1986 .

[44]  M. D. McKay,et al.  A comparison of three methods for selecting values of input variables in the analysis of output from a computer code , 2000 .

[45]  Jon C. Helton,et al.  Performance Assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: From Regulation to Calculation for 40 CFR 191.13 , 1997, Oper. Res..

[46]  Stephen C. Hora,et al.  The second iteration of the Systems Prioritization Method: A systems prioritization and decision-aiding tool for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Volume 2, Summary of technical input and model implementation , 1996 .

[47]  Jon C. Helton,et al.  Risk, Uncertainty in Risk, and the EPA Release Limits for Radioactive Waste Disposal , 1993 .

[48]  R. L. Hunter,et al.  Systems analysis, long-term radionuclide transport, and dose assessments, Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), southeastern New Mexico; March 1989 , 1989 .

[49]  Jon C. Helton,et al.  Computational implementation of a systems prioritization methodology for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: A preliminary example , 1996 .

[50]  William Feller,et al.  An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications , 1967 .

[51]  Jon C. Helton,et al.  Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for two-phase flow in the vicinity of the repository in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: undisturbed conditions , 2000, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[52]  M. G. Marietta,et al.  Preliminary comparison with 40 CFR Part 191, Subpart B for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, December 1990 , 1990 .

[53]  F. O. Hoffman,et al.  Uses of Probabilistic Exposure Models in Ecological Risk Assessments of Contaminated Sites , 1994 .

[54]  J. W. Berglund,et al.  Mechanisms governing the direct removal of wastes from the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant repository caused by exploratory drilling , 1992 .

[55]  George Apostolakis.  Uncertainty in probabilistic safety assessment , 1989 .

[56]  Jon C. Helton,et al.  Summary description of the methods used in the probabilistic risk assessments for NUREG-1150 , 1992 .

[57]  M. G. Marietta,et al.  Computational implementation of a systems prioritization methodology for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: a preliminary example , 1996 .

[58]  H J Clewell,et al.  Investigation of the impact of pharmacokinetic variability and uncertainty on risks predicted with a pharmacokinetic model for chloroform. , 1996, Toxicology.

[59]  S. R. Jammalamadaka,et al.  Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk , 1999 .

[60]  Ian Hacking,et al.  The Emergence of Probability. A Philosophical Study of Early Ideas about Probability, Induction and Statistical Inference , 1979 .

[61]  Jon C. Helton,et al.  Radionuclide transport in the vicinity of the repository and associated complementary cumulative distribution functions in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant , 2000, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[62]  Charles Levenstein.  Hazards: Technology and Fairness , 1987 .

[63]  Ellen K. Silbergeld.  Five Types of Ambiguity: Scientific Uncertainty in Risk Assessment , 1987 .

[64]  F. O. Hoffman,et al.  Propagation of uncertainty in risk assessments: the need to distinguish between uncertainty due to lack of knowledge and uncertainty due to variability. , 1994, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[65]  Jon C. Helton,et al.  Treatment of Uncertainty in Performance Assessments for Complex Systems , 1994 .

[66]  J. C. Helton,et al.  Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant , 1999 .

[67]  Jon C. Helton,et al.  Characterization of subjective uncertainty in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant , 2000, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[68]  M. G. Marietta,et al.  Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results obtained in the 1992 performance assessment for the waste isolation pilot plant , 1996 .

[69]  M. E Paté-Cornell,et al.  Probability and uncertainty in nuclear safety decisions , 1986 .

[70]  Jon C. Helton,et al.  Direct releases to the surface and associated complementary cumulative distribution functions in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: cuttings, cavings and spallings , 2000, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[71]  P S Price,et al.  Uncertainty and variation in indirect exposure assessments: an analysis of exposure to tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin from a beef consumption pathway. , 1996, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[72]  M. G. Marietta,et al.  Effect of alternative conceptual models in a preliminary performance assessment for the waste isolation pilot plant , 1995 .

[73]  John Reed,et al.  Final summary report , 1992 .

[74]  M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell,et al.  Uncertainties in risk analysis: Six levels of treatment , 1996 .

[75]  M. G. Marietta,et al.  Draft forecast of the final report for the comparison to 40 CFR Part 191, Subpart B, for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant , 1989 .

[76]  Jon C. Helton,et al.  Probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions in performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal , 1996 .

[77]  C. HeltonJ.,et al.  Performance Assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant , 1997 .

[78]  A. C. Payne,et al.  Analysis of the LaSalle Unit 2 Nuclear Power Plant: Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP). Volume 3, Part 2, Internal events accident sequence quantification: Appendices , 1992 .

[79]  William Feller,et al.  An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications , 1951 .