End-Use Load Shape Data Application, Estimation, and Collection: A State-of-the-Art Review
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As electric utilities increasingly adopt least-cost integrated resource planning processes, their information needs about demand-side management (DSM) options expand considerably. Current utility supply-side planning methods involve detailed assessments of alternative resource plans that take explicit account of the time-varying nature of customers' demands for electricity. In order for demand-side options to be treated comparably to generation resources, planners need reliable information on their impact on system loads. Yet information on the components of aggregate electricity (i.e., end uses) and how they can be modified, especially at the level of temporal disaggregation used to evaluate generation options, is not widely available. A recent assessment of least-cost planning (LCP) concludes that uncertainty about the performance of DSM activities, including their impact on load shapes, is a major barrier to increased utility reliance on DSM for meeting customer's demands for electricity services. The goal of this paper is to assess progress in reducing this uncertainty by reviewing leading efforts to apply, estimate, and collect end-use load shape data for utility planning purposes. We begin by reviewing utility applications of end-use load shape data. For the purposes of this paper, these applications constitute the primary demand'' for load shape data. In the subsequent twomore » sections, we review current efforts to obtain end-use load shape data by estimation and by direct metering. Our discussion of these three topics begins with a brief historical summary and is followed by a review of the current state-of-the-art. We also speculate on promising future areas of research. These speculations form the basis for a final section, which describes our vision of the next generation of end-use load shape data applications, estimation, and collection. 44 refs., 1 tab.« less