A Study on the Performance of the NCMRWF Analysis and Forecasting System During Asian Summer Monsoon: Thermodynamic Aspects

Abstract—The thermodynamic characteristics of the Asian summer monsoon are examined with a global analysis-forecast system. In this study, we investigated the large-scale balances of heat and moisture by making use of operational analyses as well as forecast fields for June, July and August (JJA), 1994. Apart from elucidating systematic errors in the temperature and moisture fields, the study expounds the influence of these errors on the large-scale budgets of heat and moisture over the monsoon region. The temperature forecasts of the model delineate predominant cooling in the middle and lower tropospheres over the monsoon region. Similarly, the moisture forecasts evince a drying tendency in the lower troposphere. However, certain sectors of moderate moistening exist over the peninsular India and adjoining oceanic sectors of the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.¶The broad features of the large-scale heat and moisture budgets represented by the analysis/forecast fields indicate good agreement with the observed aspects of the summer monsoon circulation. The model forecasts fail to retain the analyzed atmospheric variability in terms of the mean circulation, which is indicated by underestimation of various terms of heat and moisture budgets with an increase in the forecast period. Further, the forecasts depict an anomalous diabatic cooling layer in the lower middle troposphere of the monsoon region which inhibits vertical transfer of heat and moisture from the mixed layer of the atmospheric boundary layer to the middle troposphere. In effect, the monsoon circulation is considerably weakened with an increase in the forecast period. The treatment of shallow convection and the use of interactive clouds in the model can reduce the cooling bias considerably.

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