A new methodology for modeling national command level decisionmaking in war games and simulations

Abstract : This report describes and illustrates a methodology for modeling National Command Level (NCL) decisionmaking in large-scale crisis and conflict involving both superpowers--a methodology that progresses from abstract concepts about superpower objectives and strategy through the step-by-step procedures for building an operational computer program. Its two key components are defining an 'image' of Soviet or U.S. decisionmaking, and moving from that imprecise image to a precise and coherent computer program. The report's sections outline the modeling approach; review the most important concepts underlying the approach: describe the systematic definition of alternative coherent images of the Soviet or U.S. NCL; describe building an operational computer program that is both transparent and able to explain its own decisions; and discuss initial experiences using prototype versions of the computer models. (Author)