Estimation of coupling along the Main Himalayan Thrust in the central Himalaya

Abstract We analyze episodic (1995–2010) and permanent GNSS data quantifying interseismic velocities in the Himalaya of Nepal so as to constrain spatial variations in coupling along the Main Himalayan Thrust. To estimate this coupling, we model the MHT with the help of cross sections allowing us to constrain its changes in geometry from far-western Nepal to central and eastern Nepal. We determine that the upper flat of the MHT is nearly totally locked, the crustal ramp is partially locked, and that free slip is localized only along the lower flat north of the Himalaya. This location of increased coupling probably corresponds to the brittle/ductile change in rheology along the MHT and explains the location of very large (greater than the Gorkha 2015 event) earthquake epicenters north of the crustal ramp. Including the simulation of the Western Nepal Fault System in the continuation of the Karakorum fault does not improve simulation of the interseismic velocity field. The 25 April Gorkha earthquake nucleated in a highly coupled part of the upper flat of the MHT and propagated eastward along a less coupled part of the MHT.

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