Foresight for regional policy: technological and regional fit

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to propose and discuss a new regional foresight methodology. Design/methodology/approach The first part describes the methodology and the organizational process adopted for implementing foresight at the regional level and highlights the criticalities. The research methodology is based on a case study. The case is the analysis of the industrial and regional sectors and the technological families in the Lombardy region. Findings This methodology analyses trends, technologies and industries, returning a set of qualitative and quantitative indicators. Then, it aggregates them, building two matrixes (trends/technologies and technologies/industries). Finally, it evaluates the future importance of a technology (the attractiveness of a technology for the long-term competitiveness of the regional main industrial sectors) and the capabilities of the regional industrial, technical and scientific system to develop specific technologies (feasibility for the regional system to develop the chosen technology). Originality/value The originality lies in an integrated analysis of the possible futures and their relation with the industrial world. Its value is as a tool to suggest policies and R&D investments. It is possible to provide a sound basis for science and technology policymaking.

[1]  Stefan Kuhlmann,et al.  Future governance of innovation policy in Europe — three scenarios , 2001 .

[2]  Fabio Nonino,et al.  The network dimensions of intra-organizational social capital , 2012, Journal of Management & Organization.

[3]  Doris Schartinger,et al.  The Impact of Foresight on Innovation Policy-Making: Recent Experiences and Future Perspectives , 2010 .

[4]  Luke Georghiou,et al.  Evaluation of national foresight activities: Assessing rationale, process and impact , 2006 .

[5]  Aaron C. T. Smith.  Complexity theory for organisational futures studies , 2005 .

[6]  Alberto De Toni,et al.  A methodology of technological foresight: A proposal and field study , 2011 .

[7]  Barbara B. Flynn,et al.  Empirical research methods in operations management , 1990 .

[8]  K. Eisenhardt.  Building theories from case study research , 1989, STUDI ORGANIZZATIVI.

[9]  R. Vecchiato,et al.  Foresight and innovation in the context of industrial clusters: the case of some Italian districts , 2008 .

[10]  Tanja Tötzer,et al.  Designing the future—A reflection of a transdisciplinary case study in Austria , 2011 .

[11]  M. Porter.  Competitive Advantage: Creating and Sustaining Superior Performance , 1985 .

[12]  H. Grupp,et al.  Technology foresight using a Delphi approach: a Japanese‐German co‐operation , 1994 .

[13]  Jan Oliver Schwarz,et al.  Pitfalls in implementing a strategic early warning system , 2005 .

[14]  M. Patton.  Qualitative research and evaluation methods , 1980 .

[15]  R. Vecchiato,et al.  Experimentation of trans-regional foresight: the case of the ForTransRis project , 2011 .

[16]  Ben R. Martin,et al.  Technology foresight for wiring up the national innovation system: experiences in Britain, Australia and New Zealand , 1999 .

[17]  Olivier Da Costa,et al.  The impact of foresight on policy-making: insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process , 2008, Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manag..

[18]  R. Belk,et al.  Assessing Trustworthiness in Naturalistic Consumer Research , 1989 .

[19]  Jeremy Howells,et al.  Innovation and regional economic development: A matter of perspective? , 2005 .

[20]  Attila Havas,et al.  Terminology and Methodology for Benchmarking Foresight Programmes , 2005 .

[21]  R. Vecchiato,et al.  Foresight for public procurement and regional innovation policy: The case of Lombardy , 2014 .

[22]  Eelko Huizingh,et al.  Corporate Foresight : An Emerging Field with a Rich Tradition , 2022 .

[23]  R. Barré,et al.  Innovation systems dynamics and the positioning of Europe. A review and critique of recent Foresight studies , 2014 .

[24]  David A. Wolfe,et al.  Local social knowledge management: Community actors, institutions and multilevel governance in regional foresight exercises , 2004 .

[25]  L. Georghiou,et al.  Third Generation Foresight - Integrating the Socio-economic Dimension , 2001 .

[26]  B. Asheim,et al.  Regional Innovation Systems: The Integration of Local ‘Sticky’ and Global ‘Ubiquitous’ Knowledge , 2002 .

[27]  Gro Sandkjær Hanssen,et al.  Regional Foresight, Modes of Governance and Democracy , 2009 .

[28]  Michael Keenan,et al.  Editors' introduction to the European Foresight Monitoring Network , 2008 .

[29]  Fabio Nonino,et al.  A model for assessing the coherence of companies’ knowledge strategy , 2011 .

[30]  E. Guba,et al.  Naturalistic inquiry: Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications, 1985, 416 pp., $25.00 (Cloth) , 1985 .

[31]  Fabiana Scapolo,et al.  A comparison of national foresight exercises , 1999 .

[32]  Kerstin Cuhls,et al.  Technology foresight - Past and future , 2003 .

[33]  K. Matthias Weber,et al.  Foresight and Adaptive Planning as Complementary Elements in Anticipatory Policy-making: A Conceptual and Methodological Approach , 2006 .

[34]  Fabio Nonino,et al.  Methodology of business ecosystems network analysis: A case study in telecom italia future centre , 2013 .

[35]  M. Kerkhof,et al.  Learning and stakeholder participation in transition processes towards sustainability: Methodological considerations , 2005 .

[36]  K. Koschatzky.  Foresight as a Governance Concept at the Interface between Global Challenges and Regional Innovation Potentials , 2005 .

[37]  Maarten van der Vlist,et al.  Integrating futures studies with organizational development: Design options for the scenario project ‘RWS2020’ , 2011 .

[38]  Riccardo Vecchiato,et al.  A new methodology for regional foresight , 2007 .

[39]  Cinzia Battistella,et al.  Technological Forecasting & Social Change The organisation of Corporate Foresight : A multiple case study in the telecommunication industry , 2014 .

[40]  Ulla Higdem.  The co-creation of regional futures: Facilitating action research in regional foresight , 2014 .

[41]  P. Rodrigues,et al.  Knowledge Production in European Regions: The Impact of Regional Strategies and Regionalization on Innovation , 2010 .

[42]  H. Igor Ansoff,et al.  The emerging paradigm of strategic behavior , 1987 .

[43]  R. Florida.  Toward the Learning Region , 1995 .

[44]  K. Matthias Weber,et al.  Adaptive Foresight: Navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies , 2008 .

[45]  Gill Ringland,et al.  Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future , 1998 .

[46]  R. Popper.  How are foresight methods selected , 2008 .

[47]  Leo Sleuwaegen,et al.  Creativity and regional innovation: Evidence from EU regions ★ , 2014 .