Learning the Krepsian state: Exploration through consumption

We take the Krepsian approach to provide a behavioral foundation for responsive subjective learning processes. In contrast to the standard subjective state space models, the resolution of uncertainty regarding the true state is endogenous and depends on the decision maker's actions. There need not be full resolution of uncertainty between periods. When the decision maker chooses what to consume, she also chooses the information structure to which she will be exposed. When she consumes outcomes, she learns her relative preference between them; after each consumption history, the decision maker's information structure is a refinement of the previous information structure. We provide the behavioral restrictions corresponding to a recursive representation exhibiting such a learning process. Through the incorporation of dynamics we are able to identify the set of preferences the decision maker believes possible after each history of consumption, without appealing to an environment with risk.

[1]  H. Robbins Some aspects of the sequential design of experiments , 1952 .

[2]  Asen Kochov Time and No Lotteries: An Axiomatization of Maxmin Expected Utility , 2015 .

[3]  Norio Takeoka,et al.  Stochastic endogenous time preference , 2014 .

[4]  Wolfgang Pesendorfer,et al.  The Revealed Preference Theory of Changing Tastes , 2005 .

[5]  M. Mohri,et al.  Bandit Problems , 2006 .

[6]  J. Gittins,et al.  A dynamic allocation index for the discounted multiarmed bandit problem , 1979 .

[7]  David Dillenberger,et al.  A Theory of Subjective Learning , 2012, J. Econ. Theory.

[8]  Marciano M. Siniscalchi,et al.  Dynamic choice under ambiguity: Dynamic choice under ambiguity , 2011 .

[9]  Kyoungwon Seo,et al.  AMBIGUITY AND SECOND-ORDER BELIEF , 2009 .

[10]  Todd Sarver,et al.  A Unique Costly Contemplation Representation , 2010 .

[11]  Kevin Cooke Preference Discovery and Experimentation , 2016 .

[12]  G. Moscarini,et al.  Business Cycles and Endogenous Uncertainty , 2011 .

[13]  Marciano M. Siniscalchi,et al.  Dynamic Choice Under Ambiguity , 2006 .

[14]  Barton L. Lipman,et al.  REPRESENTING PREFERENCES WITH A UNIQUE SUBJECTIVE STATE SPACE , 2001 .

[15]  T. Koopmans Stationary Ordinal Utility and Impatience , 1960 .

[16]  David M. Kreps A REPRESENTATION THEOREM FOR "PREFERENCE FOR FLEXIBILITY" , 1979 .

[17]  Roee Teper Plans of Action , 2016 .

[18]  Faruk Gul,et al.  SELF-CONTROL AND THE THEORY OF CONSUMPTION , 1999 .

[19]  Norio Takeoka Subjective probability over a subjective decision tree , 2007, J. Econ. Theory.

[20]  Kazuya Hyogo,et al.  A subjective model of experimentation , 2007, J. Econ. Theory.

[21]  M. Weitzman Optimal search for the best alternative , 1978 .

[22]  V. Krishna,et al.  Dynamic Preference for Flexibility , 2010 .

[23]  Itzhak Gilboa,et al.  A theory of case-based decisions , 2001 .

[24]  Search with Dirichlet Priors: Estimation and Implications for the Price Elasticity of Demand , 2013 .

[25]  C. Sims Implications of rational inattention , 2003 .

[26]  I. Gilboa,et al.  Case-Based Decision Theory , 1995 .