Utilization of mathematical models to manage risk of holding cold food without temperature control.

This document describes the development of a tool to manage the risk of the transportation of cold food without temperature control. The tool uses predictions from ComBase predictor and builds on the 2009 U.S. Food and Drug Administration Model Food Code and supporting scientific data in the Food Code annex. I selected Salmonella spp. and Listeria monocytogenes as the organisms for risk management. Salmonella spp. were selected because they are associated with a wide variety of foods and grow rapidly at temperatures >17°C. L. monocytogenes was selected because it is frequently present in the food processing environment, it was used in the original analysis contained in the Food Code Annex, and it grows relatively rapidly at temperatures <17°C. The suitability of a variety of growth models under changing temperature conditions is largely supported by the published literature. The ComBase predictions under static temperature conditions were validated using 148 ComBase database observations for Salmonella spp. and L. monocytogenes in real foods. The times and temperature changes encompassed by ComBase Predictor models for Salmonella spp. and L. monocytogenes are consistent with published data on consumer food transport to the home from the grocery store and on representative foods from a wholesale cash and carry food service supplier collected as part of this project. The resulting model-based tool will be a useful aid to risk managers and customers of wholesale cash and carry food service suppliers, as well as to anyone interested in assessing and managing the risks posed by holding cold foods out of temperature control in supermarkets, delis, restaurants, cafeterias, and homes.