The Role of Climate Sensitivity and Ocean Heat Uptake on AOGCM Transient Temperature Response

The role of climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake in determining the range of climate model response is investigated in the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2) AOGCM results. The fraction of equilibrium warming that is realized at any one time is less in those models with higher climate sensitivity, leading to a reduction in the temperature response range at the time of CO 2 doubling [transient climate response (TCR) range]. The range is reduced by a further 15% because of an apparent relationship between climate sensitivity and the efficiency of ocean heat uptake. Some possible physical causes for this relationship are suggested.

[1]  J. Hansen,et al.  Climate Response Times: Dependence on Climate Sensitivity and Ocean Mixing , 1985, Science.

[2]  U. Cubasch,et al.  Emulation of the results from a coupled general circulation model using a simple climate model , 1996 .

[3]  Jonathan M. Gregory,et al.  The climate response to CO2 of the Hadley Centre coupled AOGCM with and without flux adjustment , 1997 .

[4]  G. Meehl,et al.  The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) , 2000 .

[5]  T. Wigley,et al.  Global Sea-level Rise: Past and Future , 1996 .

[6]  T. Osborn.  The Vertical Component of Epineutral Diffusion and the Dianeutral Component of Horizontal Diffusion , 1998 .

[7]  Jonathan M. Gregory,et al.  Use of an upwelling-diffusion energy balance climate model to simulate and diagnose A/OGCM results , 2001 .

[8]  Donald J. Wuebbles,et al.  Radiative forcing of climate , 1991 .

[9]  S. Manabe,et al.  Response of a Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Model to Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide: Sensitivity to the Rate of Increase , 1999 .

[10]  R. Dickinson.  Convergence Rate and Stability of Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling Schemes with a Zero-Dimensional Climate Model , 1981 .

[11]  G. Meehl,et al.  Intercomparison makes for a better climate model , 1997 .

[12]  John F. B. Mitchell,et al.  Carbon Dioxide and Climate. The Impact of Cloud Parameterization , 1993 .

[13]  G.,et al.  Climate Response Times : Dependence on Climate Sensitivity and Ocean Mixing , 2022 .

[14]  T. Wigley,et al.  Analytical solution for the effect of increasing CO2 on global mean temperature , 1985, Nature.

[15]  H. Oeschger,et al.  Transient Temperature Changes Due to Increasing CO2 Using Simple Models , 1984, Annals of Glaciology.

[16]  M. Collins,et al.  Projections of future climate change , 2002 .

[17]  T. Stocker,et al.  Influence of the Thermohaline Circulation on Projected Sea Level Rise , 2000 .

[18]  G. Myhre,et al.  New estimates of radiative forcing due to well mixed greenhouse gases , 1998 .

[19]  J. Gregory.  Vertical heat transports in the ocean and their effect on time-dependent climate change , 2000 .

[20]  A. Weaver,et al.  On the sensitivity of projected oceanic thermal expansion to the parameterisation of sub‐grid scale ocean mixing , 1999 .

[21]  J. Murphy.  Transient Response of the Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model to Increasing Carbon Dioxide. Part III: Analysis of Global-Mean Response Using Simple Models , 1995 .

[22]  I. Watterson,et al.  Interpretation of Simulated Global Warming Using a Simple Model , 2000 .

[23]  John F. B. Mitchell,et al.  The time‐dependence of climate sensitivity , 2000 .

[24]  J. Bongaarts,et al.  Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment. , 1992 .

[25]  T. Wigley,et al.  Implications for climate and sea level of revised IPCC emissions scenarios , 1992, Nature.

[26]  Keith W. Dixon,et al.  Anthropogenic Warming of Earth's Climate System , 2001, Science.