CONVECTIVE-SCALE WARN-ON-FORECAST SYSTEM: A vision for 2020

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Weather Service (NWS) issues warnings for severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, and flash floods because these phenomena are a threat to life and property. These warnings are presently based upon either visual confirmation of the phenomena or the observational detection of proxy signatures that are largely based upon radar observations. Convective-scale weather warnings are unique in the NWS, having little reliance on direct numerical forecast guidance. Because increasing severe thunderstorm, tornado, and flash-flood warning lead times are a key NOAA strategic mission goal designed to reduce the loss of life, injury, and economic costs of these high-impact weather phenomena, a new warning paradigm is needed in which numerical model forecasts play a larger role in convective-scale warnings. This new paradigm shifts the warning process from warn on detection to warn on forecast, and it has the potential to dramatically increase warning lead ...

[1]  Kevin A. Scharfenberg,et al.  THE SEVERE HAZARDS ANALYSIS AND VERIFICATION EXPERIMENT , 2009 .

[2]  Ming Xue,et al.  CAPS REALTIME 4-KM MULTI-MODEL CONVECTION-ALLOWING ENSEMBLE AND 1-KM CONVECTION-RESOLVING FORECASTS FOR THE NOAA HAZARDOUS WEATHER TESTBED 2009 SPRING EXPERIMENT , 2009 .

[3]  C. Snyder,et al.  A Multicase Comparative Assessment of the Ensemble Kalman Filter for Assimilation of Radar Observations. Part I: Storm-Scale Analyses , 2009 .

[4]  Louis J. Wicker,et al.  Additive Noise for Storm-Scale Ensemble Data Assimilation , 2009 .

[5]  M. Xue,et al.  Effects of microphysical drop size distribution on tornadogenesis in supercell thunderstorms , 2008 .

[6]  F. Kong.  Real-Time Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast 2008 Spring Experiment , 2008 .

[7]  Tracy Lorraine Smith,et al.  Convection Forecasts from the Hourly Updated, 3-km High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model , 2008 .

[8]  Gregory J. Stumpf,et al.  The Experimental Warning Program 2008 Spring Experiment at the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed , 2008 .

[9]  Kristin M. Kuhlman,et al.  Experimental probabilistic hazard information in practice: Results from the 2008 EWP Spring Program , 2008 .

[10]  Jidong Gao.  Importance of Environmental Variability to Storm-scale Radar Data Assimilation , 2008 .

[11]  Louis J. Wicker,et al.  On the Predictability of Mesoscale Convective Systems: Three-Dimensional Simulations , 2008 .

[12]  Ying Zhang,et al.  Analysis and Prediction of a Squall Line Observed during IHOP Using Multiple WSR-88D Observations , 2008 .

[13]  Wei Wang,et al.  Prediction of Landfalling Hurricanes with the Advanced Hurricane WRF Model , 2008 .

[14]  Kevin W. Manning,et al.  Experiences with 0–36-h Explicit Convective Forecasts with the WRF-ARW Model , 2008 .

[15]  Jerry M. Straka,et al.  Assimilation of Simulated Polarimetric Radar Data for a Convective Storm Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter. Part II: Impact of Polarimetric Data on Storm Analysis , 2008 .

[16]  M. Xue,et al.  Simultaneous Estimation of Microphysical Parameters and Atmospheric State with Simulated Radar Data and Ensemble Square Root Kalman Filter. Part I: Sensitivity Analysis and Parameter Identifiability , 2008 .

[17]  M. Xue,et al.  An Efficient Dual-Resolution Approach for Ensemble Data Assimilation and Tests with Simulated Doppler Radar Data , 2008 .

[18]  R. Vogt,et al.  Agile-Beam Phased Array Radar for Weather Observations , 2007 .

[19]  Jeffrey L. Anderson,et al.  Scalable Implementations of Ensemble Filter Algorithms for Data Assimilation , 2007 .

[20]  K. Droegemeier,et al.  PROJECT CRAFT A Real-Time Delivery System for Nexrad Level II Data Via The Internet , 2007 .

[21]  Travis M. Smith,et al.  The Warning Decision Support System–Integrated Information , 2007 .

[22]  Fanyou Kong,et al.  Multiresolution Ensemble Forecasts of an Observed Tornadic Thunderstorm System. Part II: Storm-Scale Experiments , 2007 .

[23]  Travis M. Smith,et al.  An Automated Technique to Quality Control Radar Reflectivity Data , 2007 .

[24]  J. M. Lewis,et al.  Dynamic Data Assimilation: A Least Squares Approach , 2006 .

[25]  Thomas Einfalt,et al.  A Quality Control Concept for Radar Reflectivity, Polarimetric Parameters, and Doppler Velocity , 2006 .

[26]  S. J. Weiss,et al.  Examination of convection-allowing configurations of the WRF model for the prediction of severe convective weather : The SPC/NSSL spring program 2004 , 2006 .

[27]  M. Xue,et al.  3DVAR and Cloud Analysis with WSR-88D Level-II Data for the Prediction of the Fort Worth, Texas, Tornadic Thunderstorms. Part I: Cloud Analysis and Its Impact , 2006 .

[28]  Rebecca E. Morss,et al.  Flood Risk, Uncertainty, and Scientific Information for Decision Making: Lessons from an Interdisciplinary Project , 2005 .

[29]  Chris Snyder,et al.  A Comparison between the 4DVAR and the Ensemble Kalman Filter Techniques for Radar Data Assimilation , 2005 .

[30]  Mingjing Tong,et al.  Ensemble kalman filter assimilation of doppler radar data with a compressible nonhydrostatic model : OSS experiments , 2005 .

[31]  Kevin M. Simmons,et al.  WSR-88D Radar, Tornado Warnings, and Tornado Casualties , 2005 .

[32]  Erik N. Rasmussen,et al.  Precipitation Uncertainty Due to Variations in Precipitation Particle Parameters within a Simple Microphysics Scheme , 2004 .

[33]  Jian Zhang,et al.  Four-Dimensional Dynamic Radar Mosaic , 2004 .

[34]  Louis J. Wicker,et al.  Wind and Temperature Retrievals in the 17 May 1981 Arcadia, Oklahoma, Supercell: Ensemble Kalman Filter Experiments , 2004 .

[35]  J. Done,et al.  The next generation of NWP: explicit forecasts of convection using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model , 2004 .

[36]  Juanzhen Sun,et al.  Impacts of Initial Estimate and Observation Availability on Convective-Scale Data Assimilation with an Ensemble Kalman Filter , 2004 .

[37]  Barry E. Schwartz,et al.  An Hourly Assimilation–Forecast Cycle: The RUC , 2004 .

[38]  Qin Xu,et al.  A Three-Step Dealiasing Method for Doppler Velocity Data Quality Control , 2003 .

[39]  Harold E. Brooks,et al.  COLLABORATION BETWEEN FORECASTERS AND RESEARCH SCIENTISTS AT THE NSSL AND SPC , 2003 .

[40]  Richard L. Thompson,et al.  Close Proximity Soundings within Supercell Environments Obtained from the Rapid Update Cycle , 2003 .

[41]  J. Wyngaard,et al.  Resolution Requirements for the Simulation of Deep Moist Convection , 2003 .

[42]  C. Snyder,et al.  Assimilation of Simulated Doppler Radar Observations with an Ensemble Kalman Filter , 2003 .

[43]  David J. Stensrud,et al.  Explicit Cloud-Scale Models for Operational Forecasts: A Note of Caution , 2002 .

[44]  Charles A. Doswell,et al.  Deaths in the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma City Tornado from a Historical Perspective , 2002 .

[45]  Richard E. Carbone,et al.  WEATHER IMPACTS, FORECASTS, AND POLICY An Integrated Perspective , 2002 .

[46]  W. Paul Menzel,et al.  Validation and Use of GOES Sounder Moisture Information , 2002 .

[47]  E. Rasmussen,et al.  A Baseline Climatology of Sounding-Derived Supercell and Tornado Forecast Parameters , 1998 .

[48]  Robert E. Saffle,et al.  An Update on the NEXRAD Program and Future WSR-88D Support to Operations , 1998 .

[49]  Timothy D. Crum,et al.  The WSR-88D and the WSR-88D Operational Support Facility , 1993 .

[50]  Douglas K. Lilly,et al.  Numerical prediction of thunderstorms—has its time come? , 1990 .

[51]  Joseph B. Klemp,et al.  The structure and classification of numerically simulated convective storms in directionally varying wind shears , 1984 .

[52]  Kevin A. Scharfenberg,et al.  BEYOND STORM-BASED WARNINGS: AN ADVANCED WAS*IS WORKSHOP TO STUDY COMMUNICATION OF PROBABILISTIC HAZARDOUS WEATHER INFORMATION , 2009 .

[53]  S. Benjamin,et al.  Assimilation of radar reflectivity data using a diabatic digital filter within the Rapid Update Cycle , 2008 .

[54]  Juanzhen Sun,et al.  Analysis and Prediction of a Squall Line Observed during IHOP Using Multiple WSR-88 D Observations , 2008 .

[55]  Ming Xue,et al.  Numerical Prediction of High-Impact Local Weather: A Driver for Petascale Computing , 2007 .

[56]  M. Xue.  3B.1 CAPS REALTIME STORM-SCALE ENSEMBLE AND HIGH-RESOLUTION FORECASTS AS PART OF THE NOAA HAZARDOUS WEATHER TESTBED 2007 SPRING EXPERIMENT , 2007 .

[57]  Mingjing Tong,et al.  An OSSE Framework Based on the Ensemble Square Root Kalman Filter for Evaluating the Impact of Data from Radar Networks on Thunderstorm Analysis and Forecasting , 2006 .

[58]  Ming Xue,et al.  Sensitivity Analysis of Convection of the 24 May 2002 IHOP Case Using Very Large Ensembles , 2006 .

[59]  Jidong Gao,et al.  The Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS), storm-scale numerical weather prediction and data assimilation , 2003 .