A new analytic technique for the study of deterrence, escalation control, and war termination

The paper describes work of the RAND Strategy Assessment Center on knowledge-based models of strategic decisionmak ing. The models are more realistic than those focusing exclusively on quantitative calculations and they can provide a mechanism for focusing debate on policy issues where qualitative and quan titative measures must be used conjunctively. Debating the merits of formal rule-based models encourages the participants to con verge on the relative value of alternative variables, details of con text, and definitions.