Can Simple Group Heuristics Detect Hidden Profiles in Randomly Generated Environments

Research on the hidden-profile effect (Stasser, 1992) has revealed that groups often fail to detect the choice alternative with the highest sum score if the individual group members' information points to another alternative. We conducted a simulation study in which we randomly generated distributions of information such that they did or did not contain a hidden profile. The simulated groups solved the tasks by applying a unit weight linear model or a fast and frugal heuristic (Minimalist or Take The Best). Overall, a communication-based lexicographic heuristic performed best across the different environments. This fast and frugal heuristic makes cue-wise comparisons of alternatives while pooling information during group discussion. Moreover, results show that performance depends on whether group members share and exchange information on valid or on invalid cues. Directions for future research are discussed.

[1]  H. Simon,et al.  Rational choice and the structure of the environment. , 1956, Psychological review.

[2]  N. Sanders,et al.  Journal of behavioral decision making: "The need for contextual and technical knowledge in judgmental forecasting", 5 (1992) 39-52 , 1992 .

[3]  A. Hollingshead The Rank-Order Effect in Group Decision Making , 1996 .

[4]  Ulrich Hoffrage,et al.  When do people use simple heuristics, and how can we tell? , 1999 .

[5]  K. Opwis,et al.  Positive and negative transfer effects in groups , 2005 .

[6]  R. Dawes Judgment under uncertainty: The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making , 1979 .

[7]  G. Stasser,et al.  Effects of information load and percentage of shared information on the dissemination of unshared information during group discussion. , 1987 .

[8]  Ulrich Hoffrage,et al.  Information aggregation in groups : The approach of simple group heuristics (SIGH) , 2003 .

[9]  G. Gigerenzer,et al.  Probabilistic mental models: a Brunswikian theory of confidence. , 1991, Psychological review.

[10]  A. Van Hiel,et al.  Effects of Partially Shared Information and Awareness of Unshared Information on Information Sampling , 1996 .

[11]  R. Dawes,et al.  Linear models in decision making. , 1974 .

[12]  R. Selten,et al.  Bounded rationality: The adaptive toolbox , 2000 .

[13]  Gwen M. Wittenbaum,et al.  Information Sampling in Decision-Making Groups , 1998 .

[14]  Janet A. Sniezek,et al.  The impact of information distribution, ownership; and discussion on group member judgment: The differential cue weighting model , 2003 .

[15]  P. R. Laughlin,et al.  Demonstrability and social combination processes on mathematical intellective tasks. , 1986 .

[16]  Reid Hastie,et al.  The impact of information on small group choice. , 1997 .

[17]  P. Todd,et al.  Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart , 1999 .

[18]  R D Sorkin,et al.  Signal-detection analysis of group decision making. , 2001, Psychological review.

[19]  Ulrich Hoffrage,et al.  The Ecological Rationality of Simple Group Heuristics: Effects of Group Member Strategies on Decision Accuracy , 2006 .

[20]  Oswald Huber,et al.  The influence of some task variables on cognitive operations in an information-processing decision model , 1980 .

[21]  Brian E. Mennecke,et al.  Using group support systems to discover hidden profiles: an examination of the influence of group size and meeting structures on information sharing and decision quality , 1997, Int. J. Hum. Comput. Stud..

[22]  J. R. Larson,et al.  Diagnosing groups: the pooling, management, and impact of shared and unshared case information in team-based medical decision making. , 1998, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[23]  Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos,et al.  The use of recognition in group decision-making , 2004 .

[24]  A. Bröder Assessing the empirical validity of the "take-the-best" heuristic as a model of human probabilistic inference. , 2000, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.

[25]  N. Kerr,et al.  Group performance and decision making. , 2004, Annual review of psychology.

[26]  T. Reimer Kognitive Ansätze zur Vorhersage der Gruppenleistung , 2001 .

[27]  Tobias Greitemeyer,et al.  Preference-consistent evaluation of information in the hidden profile paradigm: beyond group-level explanations for the dominance of shared information in group decisions. , 2003, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[28]  Sandra J. Burke The Effects of Missing Information on Decision Strategy Selection , 1990 .

[29]  J. R. Larson,et al.  Diagnosing groups : Charting the flow of information in medical decision-making teams , 1996 .

[30]  J. H. Davis Group decision and social interaction: A theory of social decision schemes. , 1973 .

[31]  G. Stasser,et al.  Expert Roles and Information Exchange during Discussion: The Importance of Knowing Who Knows What , 1995 .

[32]  Garold Stasser,et al.  Computer simulation as a research tool: The DISCUSS model of group decision making , 1988 .

[33]  J. R. Larson,et al.  Discussion of shared and unshared information in decision-making groups , 1994 .

[34]  D. Goldstein,et al.  How good are simple heuristics , 1999 .

[35]  Ulrich Hoffrage,et al.  Models of bounded rationality : The approach of fast and frugal heuristics , 2004 .

[36]  D. Budescu,et al.  Averaging probability judgments: Monte Carlo analyses of asymptotic diagnostic value , 2001 .

[37]  Gwen M. Wittenbaum,et al.  The Bias Toward Discussing Shared Information , 2000, Commun. Res..

[38]  Robert S. Billings,et al.  Accountability and the discussion of unshared, critical information in decision-making groups. , 1998 .

[39]  G. Stasser,et al.  Pooling of Unshared Information in Group Decision Making: Biased Information Sampling During Discussion , 1985 .

[40]  S. Schulz-Hardt,et al.  Productive conflict in group decision making: genuine and contrived dissent as strategies to counteract biased information seeking☆ , 2002 .

[41]  G. Stasser,et al.  Information salience and the discovery of hidden profiles by decision-making groups: A “thought experiment”☆ , 1992 .

[42]  U. Hoffrage,et al.  Fast, frugal, and fit: Simple heuristics for paired comparison , 2002 .

[43]  Garold Stasser,et al.  Computer simulation methods for social psychology. , 2000 .

[44]  G. Stasser,et al.  Information sampling in structured and unstructured discussions of three- and six-person groups. , 1989 .

[45]  G. Stasser,et al.  Group Creativity and Collective Choice , 2019, The Oxford Handbook of Group Creativity and Innovation.

[46]  J. H. Davis,et al.  Some compelling intuitions about group consensus decisions, theoretical and empirical research, and interpersonal aggregation phenomena: Selected examples 1950-1990 , 1992 .

[47]  Gordon H. Lewis,et al.  Nonroutine Decision Making. , 1974 .

[48]  S. Schulz-Hardt,et al.  The dissemination of critical, unshared information in decision-making groups: the effects of pre-discussion dissent , 2002 .

[49]  Craig D. Parks,et al.  Acceptance of Uncommon Information into Group Discussion When That Information Is or Is Not Demonstrable , 1996 .

[50]  N. Kerr,et al.  Group Process, Group Decision, Group Action , 1992 .

[51]  Verlin B. Hinsz,et al.  The emerging conceptualization of groups as information processors. , 1997, Psychological bulletin.

[52]  J. R. Larson,et al.  Information Pooling: When It Impacts Group Decision Making , 1998 .

[53]  Bucciarelli,et al.  Proceedings of the Twenty-Seventh Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society , 2005 .

[54]  Gwen M. Wittenbaum,et al.  Management of information in small groups. , 1996 .