The potential of future aircraft technology for noise and pollutant emissions reduction

The negative external impacts of aviation are currently under unprecedented scrutiny. In response, a number of studies into future prospects for improvement have recently been carried out. This paper reviews these studies and discusses their combined implications for emissions of carbon dioxide, oxides of nitrogen, and noise. The results are also compared with targets for emissions reduction proposed by ACARE and NASA. It is concluded that significant future gains are achievable, but not to the extent implied by the ACARE and NASA targets, which represent an unrealistically optimistic view of technological potential over the next 20–40 years. The focus on technological advance also deflects attention from the substantial benefits available from combining present-day technology with behavioural change. Finally, difficult policy decisions will be necessary; the greatest benefits are associated with technological developments that will require major, and long-term, investment for their realisation, and there will be increasing conflict between environmental and noise goals.