Approaching parallel computing to simulating population dynamics in demography

We have developed a web-based parallel agent-based simulation tool for demography.The tool has been designed for social scientists who have no programming experience.The user interface uses commonly used modelling techniques in demography.The tool can be accessed by public through web-based interface for wider user tests.Experiments show the performance of the tool for large scale simulations is good. Agent-based modelling and simulation is a promising methodology that can be applied in the study of population dynamics. The main advantage of this technique is that it allows representing the particularities of the individuals that are modeled along with the interactions that take place among them and their environment. Hence, classical numerical simulation approaches are less adequate for reproducing complex dynamics. Nowadays, there is a rise of interest on using distributed computing to perform large-scale simulation of social systems. However, the inherent complexity of this type of applications is challenging and requires the study of possible solutions from the parallel computing perspective (e.g., how to deal with fine grain or irregular workload). In this paper, we discuss the particularities of simulating populating dynamics by using parallel discrete event simulation methodologies. To illustrate our approach, we present a possible solution to make transparent the use of parallel simulation for modeling demographic systems: Yades tool. In Yades, modelers can easily define models that describe different demographic processes with a web user interface and transparently run them on any computer architecture environment thanks to its demographic simulation library and code generator. Therefore, transparency is provided by two means: the provision of a web user interface where modelers and policy makers can specify their agent-based models with the tools they are familiar with, and the automatic generation of the simulation code that can be executed in any platform (cluster or supercomputer). A study is conducted to evaluate the performance of our solution in a High Performance Computing environment. The main benefit of this outline is that our findings can be generalized to problems with similar characteristics to our demographic simulation model.

[1]  Jutta Gampe,et al.  MIC-core: A tool for microsimulation , 2009, Proceedings of the 2009 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC).

[2]  Viliam Solcany,et al.  The lookahead in a user-transparent conservative parallel simulator , 2002, Proceedings 16th Workshop on Parallel and Distributed Simulation.

[3]  Michael E. Bratman,et al.  Intention, Plans, and Practical Reason , 1991 .

[4]  Theodore T. Allen Introduction to Discrete Event Simulation and Agent-based Modeling: Voting Systems, Health Care, Military, and Manufacturing , 2011 .

[5]  Y. Barlas,et al.  Environmental sustainability in an agricultural development project: a system dynamics approach. , 2002, Journal of environmental management.

[6]  Xavier Rubio-Campillo,et al.  Pandora: A versatile agent-based modelling platform for social simulation , 2014 .

[7]  Richard M. Fujimoto,et al.  Optimistic parallel discrete event simulations of physical systems using reverse computation , 2005, Workshop on Principles of Advanced and Distributed Simulation (PADS'05).

[8]  Mauricio Salgado,et al.  The Evolution of Paternal Care , 2013, SBP.

[9]  Srikanth B. Yoginath,et al.  Parallel Vehicular Traffic Simulation using Reverse Computation-based Optimistic Execution , 2008, 2008 22nd Workshop on Principles of Advanced and Distributed Simulation.

[10]  Peter S. Pacheco Parallel programming with MPI , 1996 .

[11]  Kevin B. Korb,et al.  Synthetic Population Dynamics: A Model of Household Demography , 2013, J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul..

[12]  Kalyan S. Perumalla,et al.  /spl mu/sik - a micro-kernel for parallel/distributed simulation systems , 2005, Workshop on Principles of Advanced and Distributed Simulation (PADS'05).

[13]  Marian Gheorghe,et al.  Exploitation of High Performance Computing in the FLAME Agent-Based Simulation Framework , 2012, 2012 IEEE 14th International Conference on High Performance Computing and Communication & 2012 IEEE 9th International Conference on Embedded Software and Systems.

[14]  Dhananjai Madhava Rao,et al.  Parallel simulation of the global epidemiology of Avian Influenza , 2008, 2008 Winter Simulation Conference.

[15]  Cristina Montañola-Sales,et al.  Agent-based simulation validation: A case study in demographic simulation , 2011 .

[16]  Hassan Rajaei,et al.  Design issues in parallel simulation languages , 1993, IEEE Design & Test of Computers.

[17]  Averill M. Law,et al.  Simulation Modeling and Analysis , 1982 .

[18]  Hassan Rajaei SIMA: an environment for parallel discrete-event simulation , 1992, Annual Simulation Symposium.

[19]  Mark Birkin,et al.  Agent-Based Extensions to a Spatial Microsimulation Model of Demographic Change , 2012 .

[20]  Leigh Tesfatsion,et al.  Agent-Based Computational Economics: Growing Economies From the Bottom Up , 2002, Artificial Life.

[21]  John N. Warfield,et al.  World dynamics , 1973 .

[22]  Dwight W. Read,et al.  Kinship based demographic simulation of societal processes , 1998, J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul..

[23]  Erez Hatna,et al.  Agent-Based Modeling of Householders’ Migration Behavior and Its Consequences , 2003 .

[24]  Guanghong Gong,et al.  Development and application of intelligent system modeling and simulation platform , 2012, Simul. Model. Pract. Theory.

[25]  Nelson Minar,et al.  The Swarm Simulation System: A Toolkit for Building Multi-Agent Simulations , 1996 .

[26]  R.M. Fujimoto,et al.  Parallel and distributed simulation systems , 2001, Proceeding of the 2001 Winter Simulation Conference (Cat. No.01CH37304).

[27]  Roberto Leombruni,et al.  LABORsim: An Agent-Based Microsimulation of Labour Supply – An Application to Italy , 2006 .

[28]  Richard M. Fujimoto,et al.  Parallel and Distribution Simulation Systems , 1999 .

[29]  Sally C. Brailsford,et al.  Use of discrete-event simulation to evaluate strategies for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in developing countries , 2005, J. Oper. Res. Soc..

[30]  Uri Wilensky,et al.  NetLogo: A simple environment for modeling complexity , 2014 .

[31]  D. Kniveton,et al.  Agent-based model simulations of future changes in migration flows for Burkina Faso , 2011 .

[32]  Bhakti S. S. Onggo,et al.  Parallel discrete-event simulation of population dynamics , 2008, 2008 Winter Simulation Conference.

[33]  Frank Heiland,et al.  The Collapse of the Berlin Wall: Simulating State-Level East to West German Migration Patterns , 2003 .

[34]  Roberto Vitali,et al.  Transparent and Efficient Shared-State Management for Optimistic Simulations on Multi-core Machines , 2012, 2012 IEEE 20th International Symposium on Modeling, Analysis and Simulation of Computer and Telecommunication Systems.

[35]  Cje Castle,et al.  Ucl Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis Principles and Concepts of Agent-based Modelling for Developing Geospatial Simulations Principles and Concepts of Agent-based Modelling for Developing Geospatial Simulations 1.2.4.2: Guidelines for Choosing a Simulation / Modelling System .................24 , 2022 .

[36]  C. Waddington Limits of Growth , 1972, Nature.

[37]  Richard M. Fujimoto,et al.  Parallel event-driven neural network simulations using the Hodgkin-Huxley neuron model , 2005, Workshop on Principles of Advanced and Distributed Simulation (PADS'05).

[38]  Francesco C. Billari,et al.  Introduction: Agent-Based Computational Demography , 2003 .

[39]  Christopher D. Carothers,et al.  ROSS: a high-performance, low memory, modular time warp system , 2000, PADS '00.

[40]  Stephen Eubank,et al.  Scalable, efficient epidemiological simulation , 2002, SAC '02.

[41]  Daniela M. Romano,et al.  High performance cellular level agent-based simulation with FLAME for the GPU , 2010, Briefings Bioinform..

[42]  Alessandro Pellegrini,et al.  The ROme OpTimistic Simulator: A Tutorial , 2013, Euro-Par Workshops.

[43]  Sajjad Ahmad,et al.  Estimating the Health Impacts of Tobacco Harm Reduction Policies: A Simulation Modeling Approach , 2005, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[44]  Michael J. North,et al.  Parallel agent-based simulation with Repast for High Performance Computing , 2013, Simul..

[45]  Eileen Kraemer,et al.  SASSY: A Design for a Scalable Agent-Based Simulation System using a Distributed Discrete Event Infrastructure , 2006, Proceedings of the 2006 Winter Simulation Conference.

[46]  Jakub Bijak,et al.  When Demography Met Social Simulation: A Tale of Two Modelling Approaches , 2013, J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul..

[47]  Philip A. Wilsey,et al.  WARPED: a time warp simulation kernel for analysis and application development , 1996, Proceedings of HICSS-29: 29th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences.

[48]  Christopher D. Carothers,et al.  Scalable Time Warp on Blue Gene Supercomputers , 2009, 2009 ACM/IEEE/SCS 23rd Workshop on Principles of Advanced and Distributed Simulation.

[49]  Hammel Ea,et al.  SOCSIM II a sociodemographic microsimulation program rev. 1.0 operating manual. , 1990 .

[50]  Kalyan S. Perumalla Scaling time warp-based discrete event execution to 104 processors on a Blue Gene supercomputer , 2007, CF '07.

[51]  Bhakti Stephan Onggo Running agent-based models on a discrete-event simulator , 2010 .

[52]  Dennis L. Meadows,et al.  Limits to growth : the 30-year update , 2004 .

[53]  Lan Chen,et al.  High performance simulation in quasi-continuous manufacturing plants , 2005, Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference, 2005..

[54]  Clara Prats,et al.  Mathematical modelling methodologies in predictive food microbiology: a SWOT analysis. , 2009, International journal of food microbiology.

[55]  Jose María Cela,et al.  Simulating archaeologists? Using agent-based modelling to improve battlefield excavations , 2012 .

[56]  Werner Dubitzky,et al.  Repast HPC: A Platform for Large-Scale Agent-Based Modeling , 2012 .

[57]  L. F. Perrone,et al.  PARALLEL AND DISTRIBUTED SIMULATION : TRADITIONAL TECHNIQUES AND RECENT ADVANCES , 2006 .

[58]  Wilbert O. Galitz,et al.  The Essential Guide to User Interface Design: An Introduction to GUI Design Principles and Techniques , 1996 .

[59]  Josep Casanovas,et al.  Modeling tuberculosis in Barcelona. A solution to speed-up agent-based simulations , 2015, 2015 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC).

[60]  Hazel R. Parry,et al.  Large Scale Agent-Based Modelling: A Review and Guidelines for Model Scaling , 2012 .

[61]  László Gulyás,et al.  Complex System Simulations with QosCosGrid , 2009, ICCS.

[62]  G. Orcutt,et al.  A new type of socio-economic system , 1957 .

[63]  Steven Mithen,et al.  Stepping out: a computer simulation of hominid dispersal from Africa. , 2002, Journal of human evolution.

[64]  Nick Collier,et al.  Repast: An extensible framework for agent simulation , 2001 .

[65]  Johan Montagnat,et al.  Transparent incremental state saving in time warp parallel discrete event simulation , 1996, Workshop on Parallel and Distributed Simulation.

[66]  J. Valls,et al.  Individual-Based Modeling of Tuberculosis in a User-Friendly Interface: Understanding the Epidemiological Role of Population Heterogeneity in a City , 2016, Front. Microbiol..

[67]  Anton Kokalj,et al.  Computer graphics and graphical user interfaces as tools in simulations of matter at the atomic scale , 2003 .