Thoughts on Earth System Modeling: From global to regional scale

Abstract Earth system modeling – in which the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, the biosphere, and the geosphere are all taken into account – will form the basis of the future of modeling. Our discussion focuses on some modeling challenges that we believe to be key issues to be addressed, not only on a global, but also on a regional scale. On the one hand, there is the need to improve our knowledge about emissions and atmospheric boundary layer processes to take earth system modeling forward. On the other hand, improved earth system modeling can help in advancing understanding of the chemical composition of the natural atmosphere and the resilience of the earth atmosphere. The paper aims at stimulating an interdisciplinary discussion within the modeling community, both developers and users, regarding the setting of good operational practices and priorities for future research. Special attention is devoted to chemical transport models.

[1]  W. Collins,et al.  Evaluation of climate models , 2013 .

[2]  H. Grythe,et al.  A review of sea-spray aerosol source functions using a large global set of sea salt aerosol concentration measurements , 2013 .

[3]  Sander van der Leeuw,et al.  Analysis, Integration and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES): Advancing the post-disciplinary understanding of coupled human-environment dynamics in the Anthropocene , 2015 .

[4]  Ferris Webster,et al.  Whitecap coverage from satellite measurements: A first step toward modeling the variability of oceanic whitecaps , 2006 .

[5]  Stefan Reis,et al.  Towards a climate-dependent paradigm of ammonia emission and deposition , 2013, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[6]  國合會系統管理者 Global Forest Resources Assessment , 2016 .

[7]  F. Loreto,et al.  On the induction of volatile organic compound emissions by plants as consequence of wounding or fluctuations of light and temperature. , 2006, Plant, cell & environment.

[8]  M. Aubinet,et al.  Direct advection measurements do not help to solve the night-time CO2 closure problem: Evidence from three different forests , 2010 .

[9]  Quantifying the volatility of organic aerosol in the southeastern US , 2016 .

[10]  M. Witek,et al.  Satellite assessment of sea spray aerosol productivity: Southern Ocean case study , 2016 .

[11]  C. Timmreck,et al.  Aerosol size confines climate response to volcanic super‐eruptions , 2010 .

[12]  M. Salter,et al.  Sea surface microlayers: A unified physicochemical and biological perspective of the air–ocean interface , 2013 .

[13]  G. Flato Earth system models: an overview , 2011 .

[14]  Andres Schmidt,et al.  Bayesian Optimization of the Community Land Model Simulated Biosphere–Atmosphere Exchange using CO2 Observations from a Dense Tower Network and Aircraft Campaigns over Oregon , 2016 .

[15]  M. Kallistratova,et al.  Wavelike Structures in the Turbulent Layer During the Morning Development of Convection at Dome C, Antarctica , 2016, Boundary-Layer Meteorology.

[16]  A. Holtslag,et al.  Stable Atmospheric Boundary Layers and Diurnal Cycles: Challenges for Weather and Climate Models , 2013 .

[17]  Alma Hodzic,et al.  A model inter-comparison study focussing on episodes with elevated PM10 concentrations , 2008 .

[18]  F. Chapin,et al.  A safe operating space for humanity , 2009, Nature.

[19]  M. Gauß,et al.  The EMEP MSC-W chemical transport model -- technical description , 2012 .

[20]  Alexis Zubrow,et al.  Overview of the atmospheric model evaluation tool (AMET) v1.1 for evaluating meteorological and air quality models , 2011, Environ. Model. Softw..

[21]  Hendrik Elbern,et al.  Emission rate and chemical state estimation by 4-dimensional variational inversion , 2007 .

[22]  C. Huntingford,et al.  Indirect radiative forcing of climate change through ozone effects on the land-carbon sink , 2007, Nature.

[23]  G. Stenchikov,et al.  Quantifying local-scale dust emission from the Arabian Red Sea coastal plain , 2016 .

[24]  M. Andreae Aerosols Before Pollution , 2007, Science.

[25]  Ü. Niinemets,et al.  Quantitative patterns between plant volatile emissions induced by biotic stresses and the degree of damage , 2013, Front. Plant Sci..

[26]  Davide Dionisi,et al.  WRF-Chem model simulations of a dust outbreak over the central Mediterranean and comparison with multi-sensor desert dust observations , 2016 .

[27]  D. Ceburnis,et al.  Connecting marine productivity to sea-spray via nanoscale biological processes: Phytoplankton Dance or Death Disco? , 2015, Scientific Reports.

[28]  Jianping Huang,et al.  Emission, transport, and radiative effects of mineral dust from the Taklimakan and Gobi deserts: comparison of measurements and model results , 2016 .

[29]  Martin Johnson,et al.  Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions of Gases and Particles , 2013 .

[30]  J. Piazzola,et al.  Development of a 2D marine aerosol transport model: application to the influence of thermal stability in the marine atmospheric boundary layer , 2011 .

[31]  Bart Degraeuwe,et al.  Dynamic evaluation of air quality models over European regions , 2015 .

[32]  C. O'Dowd,et al.  Flood or Drought: How Do Aerosols Affect Precipitation? , 2008, Science.

[33]  René Laprise,et al.  Regional climate modelling , 2008, J. Comput. Phys..

[34]  P. Ciais,et al.  Focus on extreme events and the carbon cycle , 2015 .

[35]  C. O'Dowd,et al.  Seasonal characteristics of the physicochemical properties of North Atlantic marine atmospheric aerosols , 2007 .

[36]  S. Pawson,et al.  Impact of planetary boundary layer turbulence on model climate and tracer transport , 2014 .

[37]  J. Neirynck,et al.  Atmospheric composition change: Ecosystems–Atmosphere interactions , 2009 .

[38]  Ü. Niinemets,et al.  Ozone induced emissions of biogenic VOC from tobacco: relationships between ozone uptake and emission of LOX products , 2005 .

[39]  Claudio Carnevale,et al.  Data assimilation in atmospheric chemistry models: current status and future prospects for coupled chemistry meteorology models , 2014 .

[40]  Allen L. Robinson,et al.  A two-dimensional volatility basis set: 1. organic-aerosol mixing thermodynamics , 2010 .

[41]  Andrea Mazzino,et al.  Size distribution and optical properties of mineral dust aerosols transported in the western Mediterranean , 2015 .

[42]  G. Seufert,et al.  Monoterpene emission and monoterpene synthase activities in the Mediterranean evergreen oak Quercus ilex L. grown at elevated CO2 concentrations , 2001 .

[43]  C. O'Dowd,et al.  Production flux of sea spray aerosol , 2011 .

[44]  Arthur Schopenhauer,et al.  Die Welt als Wille und Vorstellung. , 1998 .

[45]  C. Zerefos,et al.  From hygroscopic aerosols to cloud droplets: The HygrA-CD campaign in the Athens basin - An overview. , 2017, The Science of the total environment.

[46]  J. Lelieveld,et al.  Variations in O3, CO, and CH4 over the Bay of Bengal during the summer monsoon season: shipborne measurements and model simulations , 2016 .

[47]  J. Seinfeld,et al.  Atmospheric chemistry-climate feedbacks , 2010 .

[48]  R. Monson,et al.  Increased CO2 uncouples growth from isoprene emission in an agriforest ecosystem , 2003, Nature.

[49]  J. Lovelock Gaia as seen through the atmosphere , 1972 .

[50]  A. Holtslag,et al.  Observational Support for the Stability Dependence of the Bulk Richardson Number Across the Stable Boundary Layer , 2014, Boundary-Layer Meteorology.

[51]  C. Timmreck,et al.  Limited temperature response to the very large AD 1258 volcanic eruption , 2009 .

[52]  Eric Gilleland,et al.  Intercomparison of Spatial Forecast Verification Methods , 2009 .

[53]  G. Gentile,et al.  Ethica: Ordine geometrico demonstrata , 2014 .

[54]  Renske Timmermans,et al.  The LOTOS?EUROS model: description, validation and latest developments , 2008 .

[55]  Claudio Carnevale,et al.  Presentation of the EURODELTA III intercomparison exercise-evaluation of the chemistry transport models' performance on criteria pollutants and joint analysis with meteorology , 2016 .

[56]  C. Ottlé,et al.  A multi-layer land surface energy budget model for implicit coupling with global atmospheric simulations , 2014 .

[57]  James E. Lovelock,et al.  Atmospheric homeostasis by and for the biosphere: the gaia hypothesis , 1974 .

[58]  Zhong Zhong,et al.  New Wave-Dependent Formulae for Sea Spray Flux at Air-Sea Interface , 2009 .

[59]  L. Gu,et al.  Large drought-induced variations in oak leaf volatile organic compound emissions during PINOT NOIR 2012. , 2016, Chemosphere.

[60]  A. Robinson,et al.  A two-dimensional volatility basis set - Part 2: Diagnostics of organic-aerosol evolution , 2011 .

[61]  Gabriele Curci,et al.  CHIMERE 2013 : a model for regional atmospheric composition modelling , 2013 .

[62]  A. Segers,et al.  Sensitivity of air pollution simulations with LOTOS-EUROS to the temporal distribution of anthropogenic emissions , 2013 .

[63]  A. Benedetti,et al.  Surfactant induced complex formation and their effects on the interfacial properties of seawater. , 2014, Colloids and surfaces. B, Biointerfaces.

[64]  Nadine Gobron,et al.  Observation and integrated Earth-system science: A roadmap for 2016–2025 , 2016 .

[65]  J. Christensen,et al.  Multi-species chemical data assimilation with the Danish Eulerian hemispheric model: system description and verification , 2016, Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry.

[66]  Jos Lelieveld,et al.  A three-dimensional chemistry/general circulation model simulation of anthropogenically derived ozone in the troposphere and its radiative climate forcing , 1997 .

[67]  Rajasekhar Balasubramanian,et al.  Ammonia in the atmosphere: a review on emission sources, atmospheric chemistry and deposition on terrestrial bodies , 2013, Environmental Science and Pollution Research.

[68]  R. Monson,et al.  Isoprene and monoterpene emission rate variability: Model evaluations and sensitivity analyses , 1993 .

[69]  J. Lambert,et al.  Copernicus stratospheric ozone service, 2009–2012: validation, system intercomparison and roles of input data sets , 2015 .

[70]  Zhanqing Li,et al.  Impact of aerosols on convective clouds and precipitation , 2012, Reviews of Geophysics.

[71]  G. Tedeschi,et al.  A model for the atmospheric transport of sea-salt particles in coastal areas , 2013 .

[72]  Andreas Volz,et al.  Evaluation of the Montsouris series of ozone measurements made in the nineteenth century , 1988, Nature.

[73]  A. Holtslag,et al.  Measuring H2O and CO2 fluxes at field scales with scintillometry: Part II – Validation and application of 1-min flux estimates , 2013 .

[74]  J. Christensen,et al.  Spatial and temporal variations in ammonia emissions – a freely accessible model code for Europe , 2011 .

[75]  Mitchell V. Santander,et al.  Microbial Control of Sea Spray Aerosol Composition: A Tale of Two Blooms , 2015, ACS central science.

[76]  Michelle Berryman,et al.  This Changes Everything , 2011 .

[77]  L. Emmons,et al.  The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature version 2.1 (MEGAN2.1): an extended and updated framework for modeling biogenic emissions , 2012 .

[78]  Ariel E. Cohen,et al.  A Review of Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Schemes and Their Sensitivity in Simulating Southeastern U.S. Cold Season Severe Weather Environments , 2015 .