Dynamic ecological-economic modelling for regional planning: A case study of environmental impacts of mobility, induced by major policy options in the Brussels-Capital region

The aim of the project is to analyse the ecological aspects of mobility induced by major regional policy options, such as office relocation and expansion, transport and other urban policies for the case study of Brussels-Capital region. For this purpose a system of models will be developed, including: 1) Demographic forecasts of dynamics of population and employment (per sector) in BrusselsCapital region, with spatial distribution over its territory, according with different urban policies. 2) Dynamic input-output model to provide scenarios of development of main economic sectors of Brussels-Capital region. The structure of gross and net product, and related capital assets and labour resources would be modelled in order to make forecast till the year of 2020. Such scenarios will be used, from one side, to estimate the demand in buildings (including offices) and workers in each economic sector, and, from the other side, to study the influence of economic activities and related offices relocation and expansion on urban/regional mobility. 3) In the final stage, a model linking mobility and air pollution would be used. Here “vehiclesemissions” and "non renewable fuel consumption" models would be enhanced in order to account for new European or Belgian regulations on vehicles, as well as various hypotheses relating to the quantitative and qualitative evolution of the region's inhabitants and people who shuttle everyday will be taken into account. Recommendations for improvement of the policy making in regional and urban planning, in order to reduce the ecological pressure, would comprise the practical output of the study. 1 This project is funded by Brussels-Capital Region within a "Research in Brussels -1998" Actions programme.