Implications for farmers of measures to reduce sugars consumption.

Objective To estimate the impact of reduced consumption of free sugars in line with World Health Organization recommendations, on sugar farmers globally. Methods Using multiregion input-output analysis, we estimated the proportional impact on production volumes of a 1% reduction in free sugars consumption by the public. We extracted data on sugar production from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations database for the top 15 sugar-cane- and beet-producing countries globally, and created a custom multiregion input-output database to assess the proportions of production going to human consumption, drawing on household expenditure surveys and national input-output databases (data valid for years 2000-2015). We also considered the impact on production volumes in relation to countries' gross domestic product. Findings A high proportion of current sugar production from these countries goes to human consumption, and would thus be impacted by reduced consumption of sugars. The largest impacts on cane sugar production, and thus on farmers, would likely occur in Brazil, China, India and Thailand and on beet production in Belarus, Germany, Russian Federation and United States of America. Conclusion A global opportunity exists for public health leadership to bring together the health, economic, environmental and agriculture sectors to collaborate and build capacity for promotion of alternative livelihoods for sugar farmers. Lessons regarding strategy and the importance of political economy factors can be learnt from tobacco control measures. Further research to quantify the impact of reductions in sugars consumption would provide useful insights for designing policies to complement and strengthen efforts to improve diets and health.