Modelo de Seguro para Riscos Hidrológicos

This article discusses the introduction of an insurance model against flood damage in a micro river basin in São Carlos, SP. The high frequency of floods in many Brazilian cities led to this study. In order to quantify increased flood flows as a result of encroachment of urbanization, characterized mainly by the increase in impervious areas, a test area was chosen in the city of São Carlos, the micro-center region of Gregório creek. The purpose is to evaluate the “cost of uncertainty” that society is prepared to pay, or its reduction, using risk transfer mechanisms, such as Insurance. Hydrological simulation and the evaluation of losses in flood events were used to develop a model to establish the premium to be paid by the insured, so as to render the flood values compatible with the capital to be accumulated by the flood insurance fund. Key-words: Flood forecasting, Risks, Insurance Models, Early Warning Systems .