EVS 26 Los Angeles , California , May 6-9 , 2012 Light-duty-vehicle fuel consumption , cost and market penetration potential by 2020

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Vehicle Technologies Program (VTP) is developing more energyefficient and environmentally friendly highway transportation technologies that will enable America to use less petroleum. The 1993 Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) holds federal agencies accountable for using resources wisely and achieving program results. GPRA requires agencies to develop plans for what they intend to accomplish, measure how well they are doing, make appropriate decisions on the basis of the information they have gathered, and communicate information about their performance to Congress and to the public. Owing to the large number of component and powertrain technologies considered, the benefits of the VTP R&D portfolio were simulated using Autonomie, Argonne National Laboratory’s vehicle simulation tool. This paper evaluates major powertrain configurations (conventional, power-split, Extended Range Electric Vehicle (EREV) and battery electric drive) and fuels (gasoline, diesel, hydrogen and ethanol) for three different time frames (2010, 2015, and 2020). Uncertainties were also included for both performance and cost aspects by considering three cases (10%, 50% and 90% uncertainty) representing technology evolution aligned with original-equipment-manufacturer improvements based on regulations (10%) as well as aggressive technology advancement based on the VTP (90%). The paper will provide fuel consumption, vehicle cost, and market penetration potentials for each technology considered.