Performance Indices to Aid Nuclear Material Safeguard Management Decisions

The management of a national or international nuclear material safeguard system involves large numbers of very complex strategic and tactical decisions at several organizational levels. This report outlines a decision analytic approach to developing decision aids to assist the various decision makers in the material accounting part of that process. The intent of the report is to layout a very general simple conceptual framework for such decision aids. While the framework combines the most basic ideas of decision analysis, game theory, and signal detection theory, the nature of the approach has been kept at an easily understandable level, in order to enhance its chances of implementation in the real world of nuclear safeguard management.