A Simulation Model for Colorectal Cancer Screening: Potential of Stool Tests with Various Performance Characteristics Compared with Screening Colonoscopy

Objective: Many new stool tests intended to detect neoplastic cells or cell products are developed at present for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. The aim of this study was to simulate a population-based screening setting to assess and compare the potential for early detection and prevention of CRC of screening based on stool tests with different sensitivity and specificity and of screening with colonoscopy as a primary screening tool. Method: A Markov model was developed aimed to estimate the proportion of CRC cases which are early detected or prevented due to screening as well as the number of equired stool tests and colonoscopies per early detected or prevented CRC case. Model outcomes were calculated for the offer of annual stool testing from age 55 to 74 in combination with colonoscopic follow-up of positive test results and for the offer of screening colonoscopy as a primary screening tool at ages 55 and 65. The long-lasting risk reduction of colonoscopy allowing the removal of precancerous lesions was taken into account quantitatively. Results: For a variety of stool tests with different performance characteristics, the proportion of CRC cases early detected or prevented was estimated to be higher for stool testing in combination with colonoscopic follow-up of positive test results compared with screening colonoscopy assuming levels of compliance to be expected for the respective screening scheme. Optimizing performance characteristics of stool tests in terms of detecting precancerous lesions, in addition to those in terms of detecting CRC, seemed to be crucial for maximizing effectiveness of CRC screening with stool tests. Conclusion: Screening based on new stool tests with colonoscopic follow-up of positive test results might offer a high potential for early detection or prevention of CRC.

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