Evaluation and Design of Transport Network Capacity under Demand Uncertainty

A flexible evaluation and design model for transport network capacity under demand variability is proposed. The future stochastic demand is assumed to follow a normal distribution. Traveler path choice behavior is assumed to follow the probit stochastic user equilibrium. The network reserve capacity is used to evaluate the performance of the network. Since the future demand is stochastic, the reserve capacity is measured by possible increases in both mean and standard deviation (SD) of the base demand distribution. The proposed model therefore represents the flexibility of the network in its robustness to origin-destination demand variation (i.e., high SD). The proposed model can also determine an optimal network design to maximize the reserve capacity of the network for both the mean and the SD of the increased demand distribution. The implicit programming approach is applied to solve the optimization problem. Sensitivity analysis is adopted to provide all necessary derivatives. The model and algorithm are tested with a hypothetical network to illustrate the merits of the proposed model.

[1]  Y. She.  Urban Transportation Networks: Equilibrium Analysis with Mathematical Programming Methods , 1985 .

[2]  Yasuo Asakura,et al.  Road network reliability caused by daily fluctuation of traffic flow , 1991 .

[3]  Hong Kam Lo,et al.  A capacity related reliability for transportation networks , 1999 .

[4]  Stephen D. Clark,et al.  Sensitivity analysis of the probit-based stochastic user equilibrium assignment model , 2002 .

[5]  Hong Kam Lo,et al.  Capacity reliability of a road network: an assessment methodology and numerical results , 2002 .

[6]  Zhaowang Ji,et al.  Mean-Variance Model for the Build-Operate-Transfer Scheme Under Demand Uncertainty , 2003 .

[7]  Jun-ichi Takayama,et al.  A TRAFFIC NETWORK EQUILIBRIUM MODEL FOR UNCERTAIN DEMANDS , 2003 .

[8]  Hong Kam Lo,et al.  Network with degradable links: capacity analysis and design , 2003 .

[9]  Fumitaka Kurauchi,et al.  Network Capacity Reliability Analysis Considering Traffic Regulation after a Major Disaster , 2006 .

[10]  Agachai Sumalee,et al.  Reliable Network Design Problem: Case with Uncertain Demand and Total Travel Time Reliability , 2006 .

[11]  Agachai Sumalee,et al.  An Optimal Toll Design Problem with Improved Behavioural Equilibrium Model: The Case of the Probit Model , 2006 .

[12]  Suh-Wen Chiou,et al.  Reserve capacity of signal-controlled road network , 2007, Appl. Math. Comput..

[13]  Zhong Zhou,et al.  Alpha Reliable Network Design Problem , 2007 .

[14]  Jeffrey L Western.  Introduction: Improving Disaster Preparedness and Response Through Practice-Oriented Research , 2007 .

[15]  Agachai Sumalee,et al.  Sensitivity analysis of the variable demand probit stochastic user equilibrium with multiple user-classes , 2007 .

[16]  Agachai Sumalee,et al.  Modeling impacts of adverse weather conditions on a road network with uncertainties in demand and supply , 2008 .