Strategic Environmental Planning and Uncertainty: A Cross‐National Comparison of Green Plans in Industrialized Countries

Uncertainty is a distinct feature of environmental policy and environmental issues. This article explores the potential of strategic and comprehensive environmental planning for dealing with these uncertainties. First, four types of uncertainty and their specific impacts on environmental policy are distinguished. Strategic environmental planning could be a promising approach for dealing with these uncertainties. Based on an empirical analysis of national environmental policy plans and sustainability strategies in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries, this article comes to the conclusion that although only few of the existing green plans fully explore the theoretical potential of this new approach to environmental policymaking, it has proven an effective mechanism to deal with and reduce at least some of the uncertainties with which environmental policymakers are confronted. The greatest potential of strategic planning lies in increasing the political system's capacity to deal with those problems of long-term environmental degradation, which in spite of the past successes of environmental protection remain largely unsolved.