Dynamics of beneficial epidemics

Pathogens can spread epidemically through populations. Beneficial contagions, such as viruses that enhance host survival or technological innovations that improve quality of life, also have the potential to spread epidemically. How do the dynamics of beneficial biological and social epidemics differ from those of detrimental epidemics? We investigate this question using a breadth-first modeling approach involving three distinct theoretical models. First, in the context of population genetics, we show that a horizontally-transmissible element that increases fitness, such as viral DNA, spreads superexponentially through a population, more quickly than a beneficial mutation. Second, in the context of behavioral epidemiology, we show that infections that cause increased connectivity lead to superexponential fixation in the population. Third, in the context of dynamic social networks, we find that preferences for increased global infection accelerate spread and produce superexponential fixation, but preferences for local assortativity halt epidemics by disconnecting the infected from the susceptible. We conclude that the dynamics of beneficial biological and social epidemics are characterized by the rapid spread of beneficial elements, which is facilitated in biological systems by horizontal transmission and in social systems by active spreading behavior of infected individuals.

[1]  Karyn N. Johnson,et al.  Wolbachia and Virus Protection in Insects , 2008, Science.

[2]  A. Blank Why do new meanings occur? A cognitive typology of the motivations for lexical semantic change , 1999 .

[3]  Christopher B. Barrett,et al.  Measuring Social Networks' Effects on Agricultural Technology Adoption , 2013 .

[4]  Karyn N. Johnson,et al.  Symbiont-mediated protection in insect hosts. , 2009, Trends in microbiology.

[5]  Erik M. Volz,et al.  Correction: Effects of Heterogeneous and Clustered Contact Patterns on Infectious Disease Dynamics , 2011, PLoS Computational Biology.

[6]  H. Giles Towards a theory of language in ethnic group relations , 1977 .

[7]  Timothy G. Conley,et al.  Social Learning Through Networks: The Adoption of New Agricultural Technologies in Ghana , 2001 .

[8]  D. Rand,et al.  Correlation models for childhood epidemics , 1997, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences.

[9]  R. May,et al.  Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control , 1991, Annals of Internal Medicine.

[10]  Christophe Godin,et al.  A Computational Framework for 3D Mechanical Modeling of Plant Morphogenesis with Cellular Resolution , 2015, PLoS Comput. Biol..

[11]  P. Richerson,et al.  Culture and the Evolutionary Process , 1988 .

[12]  L. Tjeng,et al.  Orbitally driven spin-singlet dimerization in S=1 La4Ru2O10. , 2006, Physical review letters.

[13]  P. A. P. Moran,et al.  Random processes in genetics , 1958, Mathematical Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical Society.

[14]  Vincent A. A. Jansen,et al.  Dangerous liaisons: the ecology of private interest and common good , 2001 .

[15]  Xiao Yang,et al.  Vector-Virus Mutualism Accelerates Population Increase of an Invasive Whitefly , 2007, PloS one.

[16]  Eleanor R Haine,et al.  Symbiont-mediated protection , 2008, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[17]  Laurent Hébert-Dufresne,et al.  Epidemic cycles driven by host behaviour , 2014, Journal of The Royal Society Interface.

[18]  Jian-Dong Huang,et al.  Salvianolic Acid B Inhibits Hydrogen Peroxide-Induced Endothelial Cell Apoptosis through Regulating PI3K/Akt Signaling , 2007, PloS one.

[19]  V. Jansen,et al.  Modelling the influence of human behaviour on the spread of infectious diseases: a review , 2010, Journal of The Royal Society Interface.

[20]  Hong Shen,et al.  The challenge of discovering beneficial viruses. , 2009, Journal of medical microbiology.

[21]  M. Keeling,et al.  Networks and epidemic models , 2005, Journal of The Royal Society Interface.

[22]  E. Rogers,et al.  Diffusion of innovations , 1964, Encyclopedia of Sport Management.

[23]  M. Roossinck The good viruses: viral mutualistic symbioses , 2011, Nature Reviews Microbiology.

[24]  Sheldon Ekland-Olson,et al.  Social Networks and Social Movements: A Microstructural Approach to Differential Recruitment , 1980 .

[25]  Robert C. Wolpert,et al.  A Review of the , 1985 .

[26]  Thilo Gross,et al.  Epidemic dynamics on an adaptive network. , 2005, Physical review letters.

[27]  Luke Rendell,et al.  Network-Based Diffusion Analysis Reveals Cultural Transmission of Lobtail Feeding in Humpback Whales , 2013, Science.

[28]  E. Osdaghi,et al.  First Report of Curtobacterium flaccumfaciens pv. flaccumfaciens Causing Cowpea Bacterial Wilt in Iran , 2015 .

[29]  Thomas Pradeu,et al.  Mutualistic viruses and the heteronomy of life , 2016, Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part C: Studies in History and Philosophy of Biological and Biomedical Sciences.

[30]  Damián H Zanette,et al.  Contact switching as a control strategy for epidemic outbreaks. , 2008, Journal of theoretical biology.

[31]  Eugene V Koonin,et al.  Mathematical modeling of evolution of horizontally transferred genes. , 2005, Molecular biology and evolution.

[32]  Richard Stouthamer,et al.  Increased fecundity associated with infection by a Cytophaga–like intracellular bacterium in the predatory mite, Metaseiulus occidentalis , 2004, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences.

[33]  S. Henikoff,et al.  Corrigendum: ChEC-seq kinetics discriminates transcription factor binding sites by DNA sequence and shape in vivo , 2015, Nature Communications.

[34]  Luc Steels,et al.  Synthesising the origins of language and meaning using co-evolution, self-organisation and level formation , 1998 .

[35]  William A. V. Clark,et al.  Understanding the social context of the Schelling segregation model , 2008, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[36]  Jeffrey Shaman,et al.  Forecasting Influenza Epidemics in Hong Kong , 2015, PLoS Comput. Biol..

[37]  Claudio O. Dorso,et al.  Modelling dengue epidemic spreading with human mobility , 2016 .

[38]  E J Threlfall,et al.  Molecular epidemiology of antibiotic resistance genes in multiresistant epidemic Salmonella typhimurium DT 104. , 1998, Microbial drug resistance.

[39]  Maria A. Kazandjieva,et al.  A high-resolution human contact network for infectious disease transmission , 2010, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[40]  S. Scarpino,et al.  The effect of a prudent adaptive behaviour on disease transmission , 2016, Nature Physics.

[41]  T. L. Schwartz The Logic of Collective Action , 1986 .

[42]  Charles R. Shipan,et al.  The mechanisms of policy diffusion , 2008 .

[43]  N. J. Enfield,et al.  Transmission biases in linguistic epidemiology , 2008 .

[44]  E J Rayfield,et al.  What makes an accurate and reliable subject-specific finite element model? A case study of an elephant femur , 2014, Journal of The Royal Society Interface.

[45]  M. Ghanim,et al.  Rickettsia influences thermotolerance in the whitefly Bemisia tabaci B biotype , 2011 .

[46]  Raymond J. Dolan,et al.  Disentangling the Roles of Approach, Activation and Valence in Instrumental and Pavlovian Responding , 2011, PLoS Comput. Biol..

[47]  Suzi Kerr,et al.  Policy-Induced Technology Adoption: Evidence from the U.S. Lead Phasedown , 2001 .

[48]  M. Olson,et al.  The Logic of Collective Action , 1965 .

[49]  Damon Centola,et al.  The Spread of Behavior in an Online Social Network Experiment , 2010, Science.

[50]  L. Hébert-Dufresne,et al.  Adaptive networks: Coevolution of disease and topology. , 2010, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[51]  J. Hyman,et al.  Effects of behavioral changes in a smallpox attack model. , 2005, Mathematical biosciences.

[52]  L. Weiss,et al.  Toxoplasma gondii: from animals to humans. , 2000, International journal for parasitology.

[53]  L. Lefebvre The opening of milk bottles by birds: Evidence for accelerating learning rates, but against the wave-of-advance model of cultural transmission , 1995, Behavioural Processes.

[54]  Ronit Shemtov,et al.  Social Networks and Sustained Activism in Local NIMBY Campaigns , 2003 .

[55]  R. I. Graham,et al.  Densovirus Is a Mutualistic Symbiont of a Global Crop Pest (Helicoverpa armigera) and Protects against a Baculovirus and Bt Biopesticide , 2014, PLoS pathogens.

[56]  Zachary Elkins,et al.  The Globalization of Liberalization: Policy Diffusion in the International Political Economy , 2004, American Political Science Review.

[57]  Sébastien Leclercq,et al.  Horizontal transfer of transposons between and within crustaceans and insects , 2014, Mobile DNA.

[58]  Martin A. Nowak,et al.  Evolution and emergence of infectious diseases in theoretical and real-world networks , 2015, Nature Communications.

[59]  E. Coiera,et al.  Gene cassettes and cassette arrays in mobile resistance integrons. , 2009, FEMS microbiology reviews.

[60]  Thomas C. Schelling,et al.  Dynamic models of segregation , 1971 .

[61]  Imran Rasul,et al.  Social Networks and Technology Adoption in Northern Mozambique , 2002 .

[62]  David A. Siegel Social Networks and Collective Action , 2009 .

[63]  Teresa G. Labov,et al.  Social and Language Boundaries among Adolescents , 1992 .

[64]  Federica Brandizzi,et al.  Co-opted Oxysterol-Binding ORP and VAP Proteins Channel Sterols to RNA Virus Replication Sites via Membrane Contact Sites , 2014, PLoS pathogens.

[65]  C. Lumsden Culture and the Evolutionary Process, Robert Boyd, Peter J. Richerson. University of Chicago Press, Chicago & London (1985), viii, +301. Price $29.95 , 1986 .

[66]  B. Young,et al.  Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global warming , 2006, Nature.

[67]  Joel C. Miller,et al.  Supplementary Text S1 , 2014 .

[68]  J. Whitfield,et al.  Making Nice with Viruses , 2009, Science.

[69]  A. Fraile,et al.  Environment and evolution modulate plant virus pathogenesis. , 2016, Current opinion in virology.

[70]  Eli P. Fenichel,et al.  Adaptive human behavior in epidemiological models , 2011, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.