Quantitative Risk Assessment Model for Ship Collisions in the Singapore Strait

This study develops a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model to evaluate the navigational risk caused by the ship collision accidents in the Singapore Strait. Six trees are built to determine the occurrence frequencies of possible ship collision scenarios. There are four nodes: (i) own ship size, (ii) loading condition (loaded or not), (iii) hull damage and (iv) survivability in the tree. The ship collision consequences including the human life loss, property loss and environmental loss are measured according to previous International Maritime Organization (IMO) reports. F/N curves are depicted in order to illustrate the relationship between frequency and consequence caused by ship collisions. A case study which uses one month’s real-time ship movement data from the Lloyd's Marine Intelligence Unit (Lloyd’s MIU) database is finally employed to test the effectiveness of the proposed QRA model in this study.