A framework for modeling risk and emergency response in hazardous materials transportation

Hazardous materials transport is a significant economic activity. Routing is one of the key issues in hazardous materials transport. Cost and risk are primary factors influencing routing. Emergency preparedness is an issue that is common to all of these. Traditionally, risks and emergency preparedness have been addressed as two interdependent issues, but the interactions between them have not been addressed explicitly. This often results in risk estimates that ignore the effect of emergency preparedness. This research presents a framework for quantifying effects of emergency preparedness on risk of hazardous materials transportation. Risk estimates are typically based on the probability of accident, probability of a release given an accident, and consequence. An emergency response factor, 6, is introduced to obtain a modified estimate of risk. The modified risk is termed effective risk and considers emergency preparedness. Effective risk is defined as a product of 6 and initial risk derived using the probabilistic risk methodology. Emergency preparedness is measured in terms of response times and capabilities of initial responders. Initial responders were assumed to be fire units. Travel time is used to represent response times, which were evaluated using a Geographic Information System (GIS) program. Capabilities include personnel availability, personnel training, personal protective equipment, and general control equipment. These were evaluated using a rating scheme. Three indices were introduced to

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