Risk measures based on behavioural economics theory

Coherent risk measures (Artzner et al. in Math. Finance 9:203–228, 1999) and convex risk measures (Föllmer and Schied in Finance Stoch. 6:429–447, 2002) are characterized by desired axioms for risk measures. However, concrete or practical risk measures could be proposed from different perspectives. In this paper, we propose new risk measures based on behavioural economics theory. We use rank-dependent expected utility (RDEU) theory to formulate an objective function and propose the smallest solution that minimizes the objective function as a risk measure. We also employ cumulative prospect theory (CPT) to introduce a set of acceptable regulatory capitals and define the infimum of the set as a risk measure. We show that the classes of risk measures derived from RDEU theory and CPT are equivalent, and they are all monetary risk measures. We present the properties of the proposed risk measures and give sufficient and necessary conditions for them to be coherent and convex, respectively. The risk measures based on these behavioural economics theories not only cover important risk measures such as distortion risk measures, expectiles and shortfall risk measures, but also produce new interesting coherent risk measures and convex, but not coherent risk measures.

[1]  Andreas Tsanakas,et al.  To Split or Not to Split: Capital Allocation with Convex Risk Measures , 2007 .

[2]  M. Allais Le comportement de l'homme rationnel devant le risque : critique des postulats et axiomes de l'ecole americaine , 1953 .

[3]  M. Yaari The Dual Theory of Choice under Risk , 1987 .

[4]  A. Müller,et al.  Generalized Quantiles as Risk Measures , 2013 .

[5]  J. Pratt RISK AVERSION IN THE SMALL AND IN THE LARGE11This research was supported by the National Science Foundation (grant NSF-G24035). Reproduction in whole or in part is permitted for any purpose of the United States Government. , 1964 .

[6]  Ulrich Schmidt,et al.  Risk Aversion in Cumulative Prospect Theory , 2008, Manag. Sci..

[7]  D. Schmeidler Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity , 1989 .

[8]  M. Kaluszka,et al.  Mean-Value Principle under Cumulative Prospect Theory , 2012, ASTIN Bulletin.

[9]  W. Newey,et al.  Asymmetric Least Squares Estimation and Testing , 1987 .

[10]  M. Merkle,et al.  LEBESGUE-STIELTJES INTEGRAL AND YOUNG'S INEQUALITY , 2014 .

[11]  A. Tversky,et al.  Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty , 1992 .

[12]  A. Tversky,et al.  Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk — Source link , 2007 .

[13]  K. Arrow Essays in the theory of risk-bearing , 1958 .

[14]  J. Quiggin A theory of anticipated utility , 1982 .

[15]  Philippe Artzner,et al.  Coherent Measures of Risk , 1999 .

[16]  J. Aczél,et al.  Lectures on Functional Equations and Their Applications , 1968 .

[17]  Jan Dhaene,et al.  The Concept of Comonotonicity in Actuarial Science and Finance: Theory , 2002, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics.

[18]  N. Bäuerle,et al.  Stochastic Orders and Risk Measures: Consistency and Bounds , 2006 .

[19]  Constantin P. Niculescu,et al.  Convex Functions and Their Applications: A Contemporary Approach , 2005 .

[20]  Alexander Schied,et al.  Convex measures of risk and trading constraints , 2002, Finance Stochastics.

[21]  A. Tversky,et al.  Prospect Theory : An Analysis of Decision under Risk Author ( s ) : , 2007 .

[22]  Gregor Svindland,et al.  Convex Risk Measures Beyond Bounded Risks , 2008 .

[23]  E. Jouini,et al.  Law Invariant Risk Measures Have the Fatou Property , 2005 .

[24]  H. Föllmer,et al.  Stochastic Finance: An Introduction in Discrete Time , 2002 .

[25]  Marek Kaluszka,et al.  Pricing insurance contracts under Cumulative Prospect Theory , 2012 .

[26]  M. Frittelli,et al.  Putting order in risk measures , 2002 .

[27]  C. S. Hong,et al.  Risk aversion in the theory of expected utility with rank dependent probabilities , 1987 .

[28]  J. Quiggin Generalized expected utility theory : the rank-dependent model , 1994 .