Some Issues and Needs in Quantification of Margins and Uncertainty (QMU) in Complex Coupled Systems

Based on recent experiences with system uncertainty and safety-margin analysis in risk and qualification assessments of several weapon systems in fires, some issues and needs in non-deterministic analysis of phenomenological response of complex coupled systems are discussed. Very large and expensive computational physics and chemistry models, calculations, and integrated analyses were involved. Below is a list of subjects that are discussed. Other subjects are touched-on as well. - phenomenological coupling, and model decoupling and linking - model validation, conditioning, and mapping of validation results to application analyses - uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis with complex physics models - model-based non-probabilistic (transformed) assertion of risk and qualification margins