Long-Term Modeling of Wind Energy in the United States

An improved representation of wind energy has been developed for the ObjECTS MiniCAM integrated assessment modeling framework. The first version of this wind model was used for the CCTP scenarios, where wind accounts for between 9% and 17% of U.S. electricity generation by 2095. Climate forcing stabilization policies tend to increase projected deployment. Accelerated technological development in wind electric generation can both increase output and reduce the costs of wind energy. In all scenarios, wind generation is constrained by its costs relative to alternate electricity sources, particularly as less favorable wind farm sites are utilized. These first scenarios were based on exogenous resource estimates that do not allow evaluation of resource availability assumptions. A more detailed representation of wind energy is under development that uses spatially explicit resource information and explicit wind turbine technology characteristics.