Accuracy of atmospheric drag models at low satellite altitudes

Abstract Errors in empirical density models result in significant uncertainties in prediction of orbital debris motions in the low-earth environment. A comprehensive evaluation of several currently-used empirical models has been made using density data obtained 150–250 km from AFGL satellite accelerometer experiments during the period 1974–1982. These data, obtained over a wide range of solar and geomagnetic conditions, have resulted in assessment of the present status and improvement prospects of our capability to specify and forecast neutral atmospheric variability. Comparison of data-to-model mean values and standard deviations show that model accuracies have remained essentially constant during the past two decades. Mean values are typically given within ± 10% and standard deviations are approximately ± 15%. Use of more realistic indicators of solar and geomagnetic activity, comprehensive measurement programs and continued development of thermospheric general circulation models are recommended to improve atmospheric variability representations.

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