Estimation of Probabilistic Extreme Wind Load Effects: Combination of Aerodynamic and Wind Climate Data

A refined full-order method is presented for estimating the extreme wind load effects of rigid structures with given mean recurrence intervals (MRIs) by combining the distributions of annual maximum wind speed and extreme load coefficients. This refined method is capable of dealing with any type of asymptotic extreme value distribution. With this full-order method, the predictions of wind load effects by using distributions of annual maximum wind velocity pressure and wind speed are compared that provide information on the sensitivity of predictions to the upper tail of wind speed distribution. The efficacy of the first-order method is examined. The influences of the type of distributions and the variations of annual maximum wind speed and extreme load coefficient on the predictions are quantified. Finally, the first- and full-order methods are extended to wind load effects of dynamically sensitive structures which facilitate a comprehensive probabilistic analysis as compared to the Monte Carlo simulation...

[1]  R. I. Harris,et al.  An improved method for the prediction of extreme values of wind effects on simple buildings and structures , 1982 .

[2]  Emil Simiu,et al.  Wind effects on structures : fundamentals and applications to design , 1996 .

[3]  E. Simiu,et al.  Extreme wind load estimates based on the Gumbel distribution of dynamic pressures: an assessment , 2001 .

[4]  N. Null.  Minimum Design Loads for Buildings and Other Structures , 2003 .

[5]  Mircea Grigoriu,et al.  Estimates of extreme wind effects and wind load factors: influence of knowledge uncertainties , 2001 .

[6]  A. Naess,et al.  Estimation of Long Return Period Design Values for Wind Speeds , 1998 .

[7]  I. V. D. Hoven.  POWER SPECTRUM OF HORIZONTAL WIND SPEED IN THE FREQUENCY RANGE FROM 0.0007 TO 900 CYCLES PER HOUR , 1957 .

[8]  S. J. Gumley,et al.  A discussion of extreme wind-loading probabilities , 1982 .

[9]  R. I. Harris.  Discussion of “Specification of the design wind load based on wind tunnel experiments” [J. Wind. Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 91 (2003) 527–541] , 2004 .

[10]  Emil Simiu,et al.  PROBABILISTIC DESCRIPTIONS OF WIND EFFECTS AND WIND-LOAD FACTORS FOR DATABASE-ASSISTED DESIGN , 2005 .

[11]  N. Cook,et al.  Extreme wind speeds in mixed climates revisited , 2003 .

[12]  Michael Kasperski.  Design wind loads for a low-rise building taking into account directional effects , 2007 .

[13]  Nicholas John Cook,et al.  The Designer's Guide To Wind Loading Of Building Structures , 1986 .

[14]  Philip Ball,et al.  The missing links , 2000 .

[15]  R. Ian Harris.  A new direct version of the Cook–Mayne method for wind pressure probabilities in temperate storms , 2005 .

[16]  A G Davenport,et al.  NOTE ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE LARGEST VALUE OF A RANDOM FUNCTION WITH APPLICATION TO GUST LOADING. , 1964 .

[17]  Fahim Sadek,et al.  Wind speed estimation uncertainties: effects of climatological and micrometeorological parameters , 2004 .

[18]  Ahsan Kareem,et al.  Aerodynamic response of structures with parametric uncertainties , 1988 .

[19]  Emil Simiu,et al.  Assessment of ASCE 7 Standard Wind Load Factors for Tall Building Response Estimates , 2008 .

[20]  T. A. Wyatt,et al.  The designer's guide to wind loading of building structures. Part 2: Static structures: By N. J. Cook. Butterworths/BRE, 1990 , 1990 .

[21]  S. Nadarajah,et al.  Extreme Value Distributions: Theory and Applications , 2000 .

[22]  E. Simiu,et al.  Extreme Wind Distribution Tails: A “Peaks over Threshold” Approach , 1996 .

[23]  Lasse Makkonen,et al.  Problems in the extreme value analysis , 2008 .

[24]  J. Holmes,et al.  Application of the generalized Pareto distribution to extreme value analysis in wind engineering , 1999 .

[25]  Michael Kasperski,et al.  Specification of the design wind load based on wind tunnel experiments , 2003 .

[26]  Nicholas J. Cook,et al.  Towards better estimation of extreme winds , 1982 .

[27]  Oleg Gaidai,et al.  Estimation of extreme values from sampled time series , 2009 .

[28]  Michael Kasperski,et al.  Specification of the design wind load—A critical review of code concepts , 2009 .

[29]  C. Allin Cornell,et al.  Probabilistic Basis for 2000 SAC Federal Emergency Management Agency Steel Moment Frame Guidelines , 2002 .

[30]  J. R. Mayne,et al.  A novel working approach to the assessment of wind loads for equivalent static design , 1979 .