Modeling Traffic Operations on Intersections Using Monte-Carlo Simulation Techniques

The main objective of this paper is to analyze the influence of interactions between traffic flows in the conflict area of an intersection on the performance of that intersection. To do so, a model is developed based on queuing theory, which allows one to implement these interactions, such as vehicles hindering or blocking other vehicles. The model uses Monte-Carlo simulation techniques to simulate the stochastic character of arrival and service processes on an intersection. It is shown that the model behaves in accordance with analytic and deterministic formulas that allow calculating the capacities and the delays at simple intersections. However, the results of the simulation model on a complex real-world intersection, for a range of conditions of demand, show that the capacity of an intersection can drop in saturated conditions as a result of the above mentioned interactions. Therefore, these results strongly indicate that current traffic models overestimate capacities of intersections in (over-) saturated conditions, and underestimate delays, because they do not consider interactions that might occur after a vehicle has entered the conflict area of an intersection.

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