Seismic Fragility Analysis

Seismic fragility is the probability that a geotechnical, structural, and/or nonstructural system violates at least a limit state when subjected to a seismic event of specified intensity. Current methods for fragility analysis use peak ground acceleration (PGA), pseudo spectral acceleration (PSa), velocity (PSv), or spectral displacement (Sd) to characterize seismic intensity. While these descriptions of seismic intensity are attractive for applications, they cannot capture the essential properties of the ground motion, since the probability law of a stochastic process cannot be specified by, for example its maximum over a time interval. The paper presents a method for calculating system fragility as a function of moment magnitude m and source-to-site distance r, referred to as fragility surface. The seismic ground motion intensity is characterized by seismic activity matrix, i.e., the relative frequency of the earthquakes with various m and r. According to the specific barrier model the probability law of the ground motion process is completely characterized by m, r, underlying soil at the site and other parameters. A structural/nonstructural system located in New York City is used to demonstrate the methodology. Fragility surfaces for different limit states are obtained for the system and its components. Introduction Fragility curves show the probability of a system reaching a limit state as a function of some measure of seismic intensity such as peak ground acceleration PGA (Hwang and Huo, 1994; Hwang and Jaw, 1990), pseudo spectral acceleration PSa (Singhal and Kiremidjian, 1996), or moment magnitude m and source-to-site distance r of the seismic event (Seidel et al., 1989). A single parameter such as PGA or PSa cannot represent completely an entire function of time. PGA is an inadequate parameter for characterizing ground motion (Swell, 1989) and correlates weakly with both observed and theoretically computed structural damages. This paper presents an alternative method for indexing fragility. The method is based on seismic activity matrix and a ground acceleration model called specific barrier model (Papageorgiou and Aki, 1983a; Papageorgiou and Aki, 1983b). Kafali and Grigoriu 1

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