Multiattribute Risk Analysis in Nuclear Emergency Management

Radiation protection authorities have seen a potential for applying multiattribute risk analysis in nuclear emergency management and planning to deal with conflicting objectives, different parties involved, and uncertainties. This type of approach is expected to help in the following areas: to ensure that all relevant attributes are considered in decision making; to enhance communication between the concerned parties, including the public; and to provide a method for explicitly including risk analysis in the process. A multiattribute utility theory analysis was used to select a strategy for protecting the population after a simulated nuclear accident. The value-focused approach and the use of a neutral facilitator were identified as being useful.

[1]  R. Hämäläinen,et al.  Decision support for risk analysis in energy policy , 1992 .

[2]  Ralph L. Keeney,et al.  Managing Nuclear Waste from Power Plants , 1994 .

[3]  R. Hämäläinen,et al.  RODOS and decision conferencing on early phase protective actions in Finland , 1998 .

[4]  Raimo P. Hämäläinen,et al.  Spontaneous decision conferencing with top-level politicians , 1996 .

[5]  R. P. Hiimiiliiinen,et al.  Decision analysis interviews in environmental impact assessment , 1995 .

[6]  Raimo P. Hämäläinen.  Computer Assisted Energy Policy Analysis in the Parliament of Finland , 1988 .

[7]  I. Janis.  Groupthink: Psychological Studies of Policy Decisions and Fiascoes , 1982 .

[8]  G. N. Kelly,et al.  Decision making support for off-site emergency management : proceedings of a workshop, held in Schloss Elman, Bavaria, 25-30 October 1992 , 1993 .

[9]  Rex V. Brown,et al.  The State of the Art of Decision Analysis: A Personal Perspective , 1992 .

[10]  Raimo P. Hämäläinen,et al.  WEB-HIPRE - A JAVA APPLET FOR AHP AND VALUE TREE ANALYSIS , 1999 .

[11]  D. Winterfeldt,et al.  The effect of varying value trees on multiattribute evaluations , 1988 .

[12]  L. Phillips.  A theory of requisite decision models , 1984 .

[13]  S. French,et al.  Decision Theory: An Introduction to the Mathematics of Rationality. , 1988 .

[14]  Simon French,et al.  Problem formulation for multi-criteria decision analysis: Report of a workshop , 1998 .

[15]  Ralph L. Keeney,et al.  Decisions with multiple objectives: preferences and value tradeoffs , 1976 .

[16]  W. Edwards,et al.  Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research , 1986 .

[17]  Simon French,et al.  Nordic Decision Conference: An exercise on clean-up actions in an urban environment after a nuclear accident , 1996 .

[18]  R. Hämäläinen,et al.  Notes on the weighting biases in value trees , 1998 .

[19]  N. Mccoll,et al.  Intervention criteria in a nuclear or radiation emergency , 1996 .

[20]  G. N. Kelly,et al.  Decision making support for off-site emergency management : proceedings of the fourth international workshop, Aronsborg, Sweden, October 7-11, 1996 , 1997 .

[21]  Simon French,et al.  Decision Support Issues in RODOS: The Needs of Decision Makers , 1997 .

[22]  R. Hämäläinen.  A decision aid in the public debate on nuclear power , 1990 .

[23]  Theresa M. Mullin,et al.  Cognitive biases and time stress in team decision making , 1997, IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. Part A.

[24]  Raimo P. Hämäläinen,et al.  Facts or values -- how do parliamentarians and experts see nuclear power? , 1991 .

[25]  George E. Apostolakis,et al.  Deliberation: Integrating Analytical Results into Environmental Decisions Involving Multiple Stakeholders , 1998 .

[26]  Hans Vrolijk,et al.  Behavioral and procedural consequences of structural variation in value trees , 2001, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[27]  Ralph L. Keeney,et al.  Value-Focused Thinking: A Path to Creative Decisionmaking , 1992 .

[28]  R. Keeney.  Decision analysis: an overview. , 1982, Operations research.

[29]  Ralph L. Keeney,et al.  Feature Article - Decision Analysis: An Overview , 1982, Oper. Res..

[30]  Wynne W. Chin,et al.  The Effects of Group Attitudes Toward Alternative GDSS Designs on the Decision‐making Performance of Computer‐Supported Groups* , 1994 .

[31]  Simon French,et al.  Multi‐attribute decision support in the event of a nuclear accident , 1996 .

[32]  Peter H. M. P. Roelofsma,et al.  Modelling intertemporal choices: An anomaly approach. , 1996 .

[33]  Robert T. Clemen,et al.  Making Hard Decisions: An Introduction to Decision Analysis , 1997 .

[34]  J. Ehrhardt,et al.  Development of RODOS, a comprehensive real-time on-line decision support system for nuclear emergency management in Europe Final report , 1996 .

[35]  R. Hämäläinen,et al.  Decision analysis interviews on protective actions in Finland supported by the RODOS system , 2000 .