Definition of a Fire Behavior Model Evaluation Protocol: A Case Study Application to Crown Fire Behavior Models

Model evaluation should be a component of the model development pro- cess, leading to a better understanding of model behavior and an increase in its credibility. In this paper a model evaluation protocol is proposed that encompasses five aspects: (1) model conceptual validity, (2) data requirements for model valida- tion, (3) sensitivity analysis, (4) predictive validation (incorporating statistical tests), and (5) model comparison. The proposed protocol was applied to evaluate fire be- havior models that were developed to predict crown fire initiation and spread with potential application in fire management decision support systems. The evaluation protocol highlighted the limitations and the distinct behavior of the specific models and the implications of such limitations when applying those models to support fire management decision-making. The model limitations identified through these re- sults helped the authors to characterize deficiencies in the state-of-knowledge of the determinant processes involved in crown fire behavior, thereby identifying pertinent research needs.

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