Predictors of Posttraumatic Stress Symptom Trajectories Following the Fatal 2011 Christchurch, New Zealand Earthquake.

People respond differently to potentially traumatic events. To explore predictors of a chronic and delayed trajectory of posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) after a natural disaster, we analyzed psychometric data collected from 412 residents of Christchurch, New Zealand after a 6.3 magnitude earthquake struck in February 2011. Participants from suburbs with different levels of socioeconomic status (SES) and earthquake impact completed a door-to-door survey 4-7 months after the earthquake (Time 1; N = 600) and again 10-11 months after the earthquake (Time 2; N = 412). The survey included the Acute Stress Disorder Scale, the Patient Health Questionnaire's nine-item Depression subscale, and the Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7 scale, along with single-item measures of variables including aftershock anxiety and family tension. Hobfoll's conservation of resources theory was used to guide data interpretation. High levels of depression, odds ratio (OR) = 1.24, and anxiety, OR = 1.24, at Time 1 significantly predicted membership in the chronic trajectory. Predictors of a delayed onset of symptoms included increased aftershock anxiety, OR = 1.29, and family tension, OR = 1.35, over time, as well as living in an area defined as being of low, OR = 5.36, or medium, OR = 11.39, SES. Results highlight risk factors for elevated PTSS and resources that individuals can use to offset threatened loss. These findings have implications for service providers, agencies, and the public.

[1]  Tina M. Gruene.  Vulnerability and resilience to stressful and traumatic events: stressor controllability, sex differences and individual differences , 2017 .

[2]  G. Barboza,et al.  Trajectories of post-traumatic stress and externalizing psychopathology among maltreated foster care youth: A parallel process latent growth curve model. , 2017, Child abuse & neglect.

[3]  Ursula S. Myers,et al.  Predictors and Outcomes of Growth Mixture Modeled Trajectories Across an Exposure-Based PTSD Intervention With Veterans. , 2017, Journal of clinical psychology.

[4]  F. Arnberg,et al.  Six years after the wave. Trajectories of posttraumatic stress following a natural disaster. , 2015, Journal of anxiety disorders.

[5]  M. Dorahy,et al.  Impact of average household income and damage exposure on post-earthquake distress and functioning: A community study following the February 2011 Christchurch earthquake. , 2015, British journal of psychology.

[6]  Y. Zheng,et al.  Longitudinal trajectories of post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms among adolescents after the Wenchuan earthquake in China , 2015, Psychological Medicine.

[7]  Z. Solomon,et al.  The role of locus of control and coping style in predicting longitudinal PTSD-trajectories after combat exposure. , 2015, Journal of anxiety disorders.

[8]  P. Gibbon,et al.  An Exploration of Reported Cognitions During an Earthquake and Its Aftershocks: Differences Across Affected Communities and Associations With Psychological Distress , 2015, The Journal of nervous and mental disease.

[9]  M. Casacchia,et al.  Persistent fear of aftershocks, impairment of working memory, and acute stress disorder predict post-traumatic stress disorder: 6-month follow-up of help seekers following the L’Aquila earthquake , 2013, SpringerPlus.

[10]  E. Walker,et al.  Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders , 2013 .

[11]  D. Diamond,et al.  Psychosocial animal model of PTSD produces a long-lasting traumatic memory, an increase in general anxiety and PTSD-like glucocorticoid abnormalities , 2012, Psychoneuroendocrinology.

[12]  B. Löwe,et al.  The Patient Health Questionnaire Somatic, Anxiety, and Depressive Symptom Scales: a systematic review. , 2010, General hospital psychiatry.

[13]  Wen-Wei Ho,et al.  A three‐year follow‐up study of the psychosocial predictors of delayed and unresolved post‐traumatic stress disorder in Taiwan Chi‐Chi earthquake survivors , 2010, Psychiatry and clinical neurosciences.

[14]  U. Schnyder,et al.  Psychometric evaluation and validation of the German version of the Acute Stress Disorder Scale across two distinct trauma populations. , 2009, Journal of traumatic stress.

[15]  Fran H Norris,et al.  Looking for resilience: understanding the longitudinal trajectories of responses to stress. , 2009, Social science & medicine.

[16]  G. Bonanno.  Loss, trauma, and human resilience: have we underestimated the human capacity to thrive after extremely aversive events? , 2008, The American psychologist.

[17]  G. Bonanno,et al.  What predicts psychological resilience after disaster? The role of demographics, resources, and life stress. , 2007, Journal of consulting and clinical psychology.

[18]  C. Hewitt,et al.  Screening for Depression in Medical Settings with the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ): A Diagnostic Meta-Analysis , 2007, Journal of General Internal Medicine.

[19]  C. Tang.  Trajectory of Traumatic Stress Symptoms in the Aftermath of Extreme Natural Disaster: A Study of Adult Thai Survivors of the 2004 Southeast Asian Earthquake and Tsunami , 2007, The Journal of nervous and mental disease.

[20]  U. John,et al.  Post-traumatic stress disorder , 2006, European Archives of Psychiatry and Clinical Neuroscience.

[21]  B. Löwe,et al.  A brief measure for assessing generalized anxiety disorder: the GAD-7. , 2006, Archives of internal medicine.

[22]  S. Galea,et al.  The epidemiology of post-traumatic stress disorder after disasters. , 2005, Epidemiologic reviews.

[23]  G. Bonanno,et al.  Self-enhancement among high-exposure survivors of the September 11th terrorist attack: resilience or social maladjustment? , 2005, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[24]  F. Flach.  Acute Stress Disorder: A Handbook of Theory, Assessment, and Treatment , 2000 .

[25]  R A Bryant,et al.  Acute Stress Disorder Scale: a self-report measure of acute stress disorder. , 2000, Psychological assessment.

[26]  R. Spitzer,et al.  Validation and utility of a self-report version of PRIME-MD: the PHQ primary care study. Primary Care Evaluation of Mental Disorders. Patient Health Questionnaire. , 1999, JAMA.

[27]  A. Shalev,et al.  Predictors of chronic post-traumatic stress disorder , 1999, British Journal of Psychiatry.

[28]  E. Blanchard,et al.  A prospective examination of delayed onset PTSD secondary to motor vehicle accidents. , 1996, Journal of abnormal psychology.

[29]  R. Kessler,et al.  Posttraumatic stress disorder in the National Comorbidity Survey. , 1995, Archives of general psychiatry.

[30]  S. Hobfoll.  Conservation of resources. A new attempt at conceptualizing stress. , 1989, The American psychologist.

[31]  T. Wills,et al.  Stress, social support, and the buffering hypothesis. , 1985, Psychological bulletin.

[32]  B. Dohrenwend.  Social stress and community psychology , 1978, American journal of community psychology.

[33]  Patient Health , 1964 .

[34]  L. Cottler,et al.  The Epidemiology of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder and Alcohol Use Disorder , 2018, Alcohol research : current reviews.

[35]  G. Bonanno,et al.  Beyond Resilience and PTSD: Mapping the Heterogeneity of Responses to Potential Trauma , 2012 .

[36]  Charlotte Renouf.  Do the Psychological Effects of Ongoing Adversity in a Natural Context Accumulate or Lessen over Time? The Case of the Canterbury Earthquakes , 2012 .

[37]  R. Blunden.  Assessment and Treatment , 1982 .