What works? An ANFIS-based policy evaluation framework for electric vehicle technology development

The application of socio-technical transitions analysis into realms such as sustainable mobility requires understanding the efficacy of policy measures ex ante. Electrification of the vehicle drivetrain is one possible solution to achieve carbon emission targets. National governments are developing policy measures to encourage electric vehicle (EV) technologies. To evaluate policy measures, a framework based on "adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system" (ANFIS) was developed. For data generation, EV innovation policies of EU, USA, Japan, Germany, France and UK were analysed and compared with the patent filings in those regions. The training and validation of the framework shows that the model is able to predict the development of EV technologies. The model is subsequently applied to Austria to evaluate three proposed policy scenarios. This paper concludes that the developed framework might play a significant role for assisting EV innovation policy-making by enabling ex-ante assessment of the effects of different policy-mixes on the technical change.

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