An efficient design for model discrimination and parameter estimation in linear models

We consider experimental designs in a regression set-up where the unknown regression function belongs to a known family of nested linear models. The objective of our design is to select the correct model from the family of nested models as well as to estimate efficiently the parameters associated with that model. We show that our proposed design is able to choose the true model with probability tending to one as the number of trials grows to infinity. We also establish that our selected design converges to the optimal design distribution for the true linear model ensuring asymptotic efficiency of least squares estimators of model parameters. Copyright Biometrika Trust 2002, Oxford University Press.

[1]  D. F. Andrews,et al.  Sequentially designed experiments for screening out bad models with F tests , 1971 .

[2]  Peter D. H. Hill,et al.  A Review of Experimental Design Procedures for Regression Model Discrimination , 1978 .

[3]  Inchi Hu,et al.  On sequential designs in nonlinear problems , 1998 .

[4]  P. Chaudhuri,et al.  On efficient designing of nonlinear experiments , 1995 .

[5]  Reiji Mezaki,et al.  Sequential discrimination and estimation procedures for rate modeling in heterogeneous catalysis , 1970 .

[6]  Holger Dette,et al.  Optimal designs for the identification of the order of a Fourier regression , 1998 .

[7]  William G. Hunter,et al.  Designs for Discriminating Between Two Rival Models , 1965 .

[8]  Duane A. Meeter,et al.  A Comparison of Two Model-Discrimination Criteria , 1970 .

[9]  A. Atkinson,et al.  The design of experiments for discriminating between two rival models , 1975 .

[10]  P. Mykland,et al.  Nonlinear Experiments: Optimal Design and Inference Based on Likelihood , 1993 .

[11]  Janis Hardwick A modified bandit as an approach to ethical allocation in clinical trials , 1995 .

[12]  W. J. Hill,et al.  A Joint Design Criterion for the Dual Problem of Model Discrimination and Parameter Estimation , 1968 .

[13]  William J. Hill,et al.  Discrimination Among Mechanistic Models , 1967 .

[14]  A. Atkinson A Comparison of Two Criteria for the Design of Experiments for Discriminating Between Models , 1981 .

[15]  F. Pukelsheim Optimal Design of Experiments , 1993 .

[16]  Holger Dette Discrimination designs for polynomial regression on compact intervals , 1994 .

[17]  Donald A. Berry,et al.  Bandit Problems: Sequential Allocation of Experiments. , 1986 .

[18]  Holger Dette,et al.  Optimal discrimination designs for multifactor experiments , 1997 .

[19]  T. W. Anderson The Choice of the Degree of a Polynomial Regression as a Multiple Decision Problem , 1962 .

[20]  A. Atkinson,et al.  Optimal design : Experiments for discriminating between several models , 1975 .

[21]  Holger Dette,et al.  Optimal Designs for Identifying the Degree of a Polynomial Regression , 1995 .

[22]  Anthony C. Atkinson,et al.  Planning experiments to detect inadequate regression models , 1972 .