Estimation of regional irrigation water requirement and water supply risk in the arid region of Northwestern China 1989–2010

Abstract Water use in agricultural sector shares more than 90% of the total water withdrawal in the arid region of Northwestern China (hereafter, ARNWC). Irrigation water demand is therefore essential to the water resources allocation to economy and natural ecosystems in the highly water deficit region. In this study, we analyzed the spatial and temporal variations of irrigation water demand as well as crop water requirement by combining the modified Penman–Monteith equation recommended by FAO and GIS technology. Crop and irrigation water requirements for 5 main crops, including wheat, corn, cotton, oilseed and sugar beet, from 1989 to 2010 were calculated and the spatio-temporal variations were analyzed. The results suggested that the demand of irrigation water in the ARNWC showed increasing trend during the past two decades, which mainly caused by fast increase in cotton cultivation areas, because irrigation water requirement for cotton was much larger than the other crops. The changes in cotton growing area significantly affected the spatial pattern of water demand. A total of 44.2 billion m 3 water was withdrawn for irrigation in year 2010. Larger amount of water was consumed for crops in Northern Xinjiang and Tarim River Basin than Qilian-Hexi region. Irrigation water requirement reaches its maximum in July and August. It is revealed that the critical period for water supply is during April and May through comparing the monthly irrigation water requirement with water availability, i.e. river discharge. Even though the annual water resources are much larger than the requirement, but for some basins, there is severe physical water shortage during the critical water use period in April and May. The water resource supply is expected to be facing more difficulties in future.